What brought people to polling booths this time?

First-time voters, presence of security forces & EC initiatives among the reasons

High voter turnouts in the just-concluded Assembly polls in Chhattisgarh have surprised most political observers. While some have ascribed the high polling to the anti-incumbency factor and predicted the Opposition will come to power in these states, psephologists are not so sure. According to them, high voter turnout is a recent trend, buttressed by the participation of young, first-time voters. Comparatively ‘cleaner’ electoral rolls, too, played a part in improving voter turnout.

While the two-phase poll in Chhattisgarh saw 67 per cent in the first phase (in the Naxal-affected areas), the second phase saw 75 per cent voter turnout. Madhya Pradesh witnessed voter turnout of 71 per cent, up from 69.08 per cent in 2008. Mizoram polled 81 per cent.

Sanjay Kumar, professor at Centre for the Study of Developing Societies, sees this as part of a “general trend” over the past three years. This was also seen in Gujarat and Bihar polls where, despite such high voter turnouts, the ruling parties came back for a second term, Kumar notes, busting the anti-incumbency theory.

“Most elections in the past three years have seen an eight to 10 per cent higher voter turnout than the previous polls,” says Kumar.

According to him, the Election Commission’s efforts at cleaning electoral rolls have been exemplary. In urban areas, for instance, Kumar says at least four per cent turnout can be traced back to the fact that bogus voters have been weeded out. “What you have are electoral rolls with genuine voters; added to that are the EC’s voter awareness drive identifying localities and areas where there is low turnout and, thereafter, specifically addressing them through awareness programmes.”

Psephologist Jai Mrug agrees. Speaking to Business Standard, Mrug says the EC’s deleting bogus voters from the rolls has resulted in higher turnouts. However, Mrug ascribed a greater role to the present demographic break-up of the country. “The largest bulge can be seen in the 18-35 age group, which accounts for the largest number of first-time voters in recent years. Their enthusiasm has also led to higher turnouts,” says Mrug.

At the same time, psephologists concede that the reason why tribal areas and the Naxal-affected regions of Chhattisgarh witnessed unprecedented turnouts could be the large presence of central security forces, which gave a sense of security to the people.

Mrug ruled out the possibility of higher voter turnouts because of the ‘none of the above’ (NOTA) option recently included in the voting machines.

Pollsters say they will be in a better position to further analyse the voter trends when the EC releases the break-up of voter turnout, giving the exact break-up of men and women, and rural and urban polling.

POLLS A BIG DRAW
Voter turnout during 2013 Assembly elections

Chhattisgarh

1st phase (Nov 11 for 18 seats)
67%

2nd phase (Nov 19 for 72 seats)
75%

Madhya Pradesh

(Nov 25 for 230 seats)
71%

Mizoram

(Nov 25 for 40 seats)
81%