31 per cent rise in air passengers likely in next four years

Global airline industry could expect a whopping 31 per cent hike in passenger demand in the next four years, with the emerging economies of Asia-Pacific led by China, and the Middle East experiencing the strongest growth, IATA said today.
"By 2017, total passenger numbers are expected to rise to 3.91 billion -- an increase of 930 million passengers over the 2.98 billion carried in 2012," the International Air Transport Association (IATA) said in an industry forecast for 2013-17.
Maintaining that aviation globally supports some 57 million jobs and USD 2.2 trillion in economic activity, the report said the airline industry could expect 31 per cent rise in passenger demand by 2017 with 930 million more than in 2012 taking to air travel.

Of the new passengers, approximately 292 million would be carried on international routes and 638 million on domestic routes. The demand was expected to expand by an average of 5.4 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2013-17.
By comparison, global passenger growth expanded by 4.3 per cent CAGR between 2008 and 2012, largely reflecting the negative impact of the 2008 global financial crisis and recession.
The emerging markets of Middle East and Asia-Pacific would witness the strongest international passenger growth with CAGR of 6.3 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively, followed by Africa and Latin America with CAGR of 5.3 and 4.5 per cent, it said, adding Brazil would establish itself as the third-largest domestic market after the US and China.

Asia-Pacific region including China was expected to add around 300 million additional passengers by the end of the current forecast horizon. Of these, around 225 million or 75 per cent are estimated to be domestic passengers.
"The fact that the Asia-Pacific region led by China, and the Middle East will deliver the strongest growth over the forecast period is not surprising. Governments in both areas recognise the value of the connectivity provided by aviation to drive global trade and development," IATA chief Tony Tyler said.