Arctic observations may help predict tropical cyclones

Weather observations in the Arctic can help track tropical and mid-latitude cyclones more accurately, improving the forecast of extreme climate events, scientists say.

Currently, meteorological observations are conducted by radiosonde, a weather instrument that records meteorological data, typically released into the atmosphere with a weather balloon.

However, due to hostile conditions experienced in the Arctic and the limited reach of the low pressure system, the number and frequency of these observations are limited.

Consequently, there are gaps in the data that result in weather forecasts being less accurate than what they could and should be, potentially putting peoples' lives at risk.

"Extreme weather events have been frequently observed in all seasons all over the world," said Kazutoshi Sato, an assistant professor at the Kitami Institute of Technology in the US.

"Hurricanes and typhoons are one of the most influential phenomena for human life. Precise weather forecast is critical to enable communities to adequately prepare for weather disasters," said Sato, who was previously at the National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) in Japan.

For the study published in the journal Scientific Reports, researchers performed weather forecast experiments for three tropical cyclones that occurred over the North Atlantic and North Pacific during 2016, to determine whether additional observations could help predict their paths and intensity more accurately.

To supplement existing weather data observations, additional observations were conducted using weather balloons released from ship- and land-based weather stations based in the Arctic.

The data were analysed using a data assimilation system developed in Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, which can produce reanalysis datasets by "mixing" observations into global atmospheric conditions.

The observations improved the predictability of the cyclones, allowing the scientists to track the paths of the cyclones as well as forecast their intensity more accurately.

"This study demonstrated the usefulness of additional Arctic observations for mid-latitude numerical weather forecasts for tropical cyclones," said Jun Inoue, an associate professor at NIPR.

With extreme weather events becoming more frequent and more intense due to climate and ocean warming, being able to more accurately predict and track tropical cyclones can help communities be more prepared for potentially devastating storms, which in turn can help save lives.