European, US data can't be extrapolated to project COVID-19 cases in India: Mazumdar-Shaw

India has a different socialstructure and tackled the coronavirus much better than other countries, and projections of possible COVID-19 scenario going forward in this country cannot be based on European and US data, biotechnology industry veteran Kiran Mazumdar-Shaw said on Saturday.In an interview to PTI, the Executive Chairperson bio-pharmaceuticals major Biocon Ltd also suggested creating smaller red zones instead of classifying entire district as one so that economic activity picks up and supply chain is not cut-off.She called for empowering district administrations in management of the pandemic with a mandate to test the population and provide treatment for the needy.On some reports that COVID-19 would peak in India in June-July, Mazumdar-Shaw retorted: there are so many models doing the rounds projecting so many things and underlined that one has to go with real data.We are extrapolating too much from other areas (Europe and the US) which have not done what we have done.I really don't think we should extrapolate data from European data, or US data or western data , she said.Mazumdar-Shaw noted that India had declared lockdown when the country had 500 positive cases, while Italy had done so when it had 9,000 cases, and the UK 6,700 cases.So the burden of disease was much higher in those countries when they enforced lockdown when compared to what we did.And by the way, the kind of preemptive measures that India took in terms of quarantining, curfew, lockdown, surveillance and adhering strictly to lockdown protocols are something which most countries have not done , she pointed out.She recalled how health officials were calling up travelers who came from abroad for two weeks as part of strict surveillance at an early stage.Which country has done so much? There was a very strict surveillance even in early stages; so we must appreciate all those measures that were taken, even during the lockdown.The police have done an outstanding job in strict monitoring.The kind of strict and preemptive measures that India has taken is standing the country in good stead and we should not start preparing models based on European or western ones because those are very different, Mazumdar-Shaw said.Those (European and the US) models depend a lot on home for the elderly, they have lot of these.Look at the number of deaths that have taken place in the home for aged in the western world, its huge, whether it is Italy, or the UK or France, or anywhere in Europe, see how many people have died in those homes.We don't have such social structures in India.We don't have a large number of old people dying at one time.So, can you extrapolate from that data and impose it on India? No, because our social structure is so different, that's why I am skeptical of these predictions and models which are based on western models, you cannot extrapolate in Asia, she said.I would do local extrapolation of data, I would not try and build mathematical model based on European or US data.I would rather build mathematical models based on Indian data, state-wise, Mazumdar-Shaw said.She also opined that red zoning has to be made smaller, saying one cannot make classify a whole district as a red zone.You should actually start creating smaller sub-sets of red zones, because, otherwise, your whole supply chain will be blocked.That's not good, she said.You cannot make an entire district red because districts are too large.You should sub-divide districts into red areas.If you can create orange and green zones within a district, it will be better.According to her, management of Covid-19 pandemic should be left to district administrations, who have to be empowered and told to test, track, quarantine patients and provide treatment for the needy.That way if you start doing it, you will really be able to control the virus, burden of the viral disease.That's the way to do it.Economic activity should be brought into immediate effect in orange and green zones, she added.

European, US data can't be extrapolated to project COVID-19 cases in India: Mazumdar-Shaw

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