Iran talks risk failure without fresh moves: US experts

Washington, Feb 11 (AFP) Upcoming talks with Iran on its nuclear program risk going nowhere, with Tehran weakened by US-led sanctions but still reluctant to strike a compromise with a hardline Washington, experts say. After months of negotiations to agree a date and venue, Iran will sit down with the so-called P5+1 group leading the talks - Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States - in Almaty, Kazakhstan on February 26. New US Secretary of State John Kerry last week urged the Islamic republic to come to the talks prepared for serious negotiations, saying the international community would be responsive to its needs. "The choice is really ultimately up to Iran," Kerry told his first press conference since becoming America's top diplomat. Iran has seen its economy nosedive weighed down by UN sanctions, and backed by separate measures imposed by the United States and EU. "The international community is ready to respond if Iran comes prepared to talk real substance and to address the concerns, which could not be more clear, about their nuclear program," Kerry vowed. London has said world powers are ready to make an "updated and credible" offer to the Iranian leadership, while Russia is hoping for "serious progress" at the fifth round of negotiations. But US analysts remain doubtful. "The next round of P5+1 negotiations... Are almost certainly not going to go anywhere unless the United States signals that it is prepared to make what the Iranians view as meaningful and equivalent moves in exchange for Iranian concessions," wrote James Traub, a fellow of the Centre on International Cooperation, in Foreign Policy magazine. "I fear we may spiral down away from a resolution," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) at a recent seminar. Iran has the conviction that if the US accepts the offer, it must be disadvantageous to Iran. So they will work to get the offer down again." General James Cartwright, former vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and now an expert in defence policy studies at CSIS, said world powers also needed to bear in mind Tehran's motivation in the negotiations. "What we forget is why the Iranians are entering these activities, if they actually are. One of the things Iran probably wants and seeks by pursuing WMD is a guarantor of sovereignty. That should be part of our calculus," he said. (AFP) NKP NKP 02112236 NNNN