Private weather services firm forecasts normal monsoon

India's southwest monsoon is expected to be normal at 103 per cent of the 50 year average, a private weather forecaster said today.
The monsoon prediction by Skymet comes a week ahead of the long-range forecast of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The private forecaster has suggested that central India will have the least fluctuation with normal rainfall through the four-month season from June to September.
"We have forecast a normal monsoon with seasonal rainfall being 103 per cent of the long period average," Jatin Singh, Chief Executive Officer, Skymet, told PTI.
According to it, rainfall could be weak in eastern UP, Bihar and northern Madhya Pradesh in June and July and in peninsular India in August.

According to the private forecaster's projections, the chance for normal monsoon is 44 per cent, above normal (29 per cent), excess (15 per cent).

It has forecast nine per cent chance of below normal monsoon and three per cent probability of drought.
"We have devised a statistical model using National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model. We think it has the best signal with 0.6 co-relation," Singh said.
However, a section of weather scientists do not consider the NCEP model good enough for operational forecasts.
IMD is expected to come out with its long-range monsoon forecast next week.
Currently, meteorologists from SAARC nations are holding a workshop in Kathmandu to discuss their forecast for the south west monsoon this year.

A consensus statement of the South Asian Climate Outlook Forum is expected to be adopted tomorrow in Kathmandu.