Turkish invasion sparks NATO crisis but eviction is unlikely

Turkey's invasion of northern Syria along with the criticism and threats of sanctions brandished by fellow NATO members at Ankara over the offensive is close to sparking a crisis at the world's biggest military alliance.

But despite the high political-military tensions, Turkey is very unlikely to be ejected from the 29-member alliance, for NATO has seen tense times and survived them before.

From the Suez Canal crisis in 1956 to France leaving its military command structure in 1967 which forced the alliance to move its headquarters to Brussels in Belgium to the deep split among allies over the Iraq war in 2003, NATO bonds have been tested. But no country has left the alliance or been forced out.

Beyond that, Turkey is of great strategic importance to NATO. The large, mainly Muslim country straddles the Bosporus Strait, making it vital bridge between Europe, the Middle East and Central Asia. It's also the only waterway in and out of the Black Sea, where Russia's naval fleet is based.

Turkey has NATO's second biggest army, after the United States, and keeping the country inside NATO helps keep a lid on Turkey's historic tensions with its neighbour Greece.

NATO allies also rely on the Incirlik air base in southeast Turkey as a staging point for access to the Middle East. The alliance runs aerial surveillance operations from Incirlik and the United States has nuclear weapons stationed there.

"I think it's better to have Turkey inside NATO than outside NATO, to be honest. I think it's important to have them in our family and discussion. I think it's easier to work with them that way, but we cannot behave as if this had not happened," Norwegian Prime Minister Erna Solberg said Tuesday.

Turkey has been testing fellow NATO members' patience for a while.

Its military offensive in Syria comes on top of tensions over Turkey's purchase of Russian-made S400 missiles, which threaten NATO security and the F-35 stealth jet.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan also purged thousands of military officers following the failed coup in Turkey in 2016 and some have sought, and been granted, asylum in NATO countries.

"At the moment, this is the greatest political-military challenge the alliance faces," Ian O Lesser, vice president at the German Marshall Fund think-tank, said Wednesday.

"Obviously as an existential matter, it's not on a par with deterring Russia in places like the Baltics or around the Black Sea. But in terms of a political crisis within the alliance, and potentially a security crisis, it's very, very high on the agenda."
One option open to Turkey's partners is to request consultations through Article 4 of NATO's founding treaty, which is possible when "in the opinion of any of them, the territorial integrity, political independence or security of any of the Parties is threatened."