Cotton forecaster raises 2015/16 inventories forecast on weaker demand

By Chris Prentice

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Excess world cotton inventories will not fall as dramatically this year as previously expected amid a weaker demand outlook and higher carryover stocks, said industry analysts at Cotton Outlook (Cotlook) in a monthly forecast on Thursday.

Inventories will drop by 520,000 tonnes (2.4 million 480-lb bales) during the current crop year from the 2014/15 crop year that ended July 31, a more bearish outlook than last month when Cotlook saw them falling by 584,000 tonnes.

Consumption is expected to total 23.82 million tonnes, down from the August forecast of 23.94 million tonnes though still higher than 2014/15's level of 23.64 million tonnes, Cotlook said in the report.

The bearish outlook for demand comes as prices hover near 7-1/2-month lows and demand worries continue to grip the global market among stiff competition from synthetic fibres and swollen inventories, particularly in China.

Cotlook slightly reduced its forecasts for demand in key regions in Asia, but left its forecast for consumption in China at 7.35 million tonnes, unchanged from the prior month forecast and from 2014/15.

The reduced outlook for demand offset lower production expectations. World production will total 23.3 million tonnes, down from a prior forecast of 23.35 million tonnes and down from 25.54 million tonnes last year, Cotlook said.

(Reporting by Chris Prentice; Editing by Andrew Hay)