Gold Production Seen Rising One Per Cent A Year

The Gold Institute, in its report, has forecast a rise in global gold production by an average of 1 per cent per year over the next four years, touching 2,597 tonne (83.5 million ounces) in 2001.

It adds that the rate of anticipated growth is in sharp contrast to the 1980s, when production grew to 2,021 tonne (65 million ounces) from 1,275 tonne (41 million ounces), an average annual rate of five per cent.

Global production of gold went up by 90 per cent to 2,457 tonne (79 million ounces) from 1,244 tonne (40 million ounces) between 1981 and 1997. Sustained low gold prices over the past year have compelled miners to lower future projections.

The report further says that just a year ago, miners were forecasting an average annual world-wide increase of 30.6 per cent, but have now removed a cumulative 466.5 tonne (15 million ounces) for the next three years.

The South African industry, the world's largest producer, is hopeful of maintaining its annual production between 466.5 and 497.6 tonne(between 15 and 16 million ounces) through 2001.

According to the report, the US produced a record 354.5 tonne (11.4 million ounces of gold in 1997 and was the second largest producer. But production is expected to decline to 323 tonne (10.4 million ounces) by 2001. This is due to accelerated overseas exploration in the past five years by North American producers, particularly in Latin America and Asia, the two regions forecasting an increase in production.

Australian producers had a record year in 1997 producing 311 tonne (10 million ounces), but output is expected to dip to 298.6 tonne (9.6 million ounces) on account of lower prices.

South Africa, the United States and Australia together accounted for 47 per cent of the world's gold production last year, but their collective share is expected to drop to 43 per cent in 2000.

Gold prices: The CPM Group of New York says that international gold prices recorded a decline of 4.1 per cent in the first quarter of 1998 to reach an average of $295.51 per troy ounce. But according to its latest mid-term projections, gold prices in the remaining quarters should however be rising as follows: 2.1 per cent at $301.67 in the second quarter, 2.5 per cent at $309.21 in the third quarter and 3 per cent at $318.49 an ounce in the last quarter.

It adds that for the year 1999, the predictions are for an increase ranging from 2.8 per cent in the first quarter to 3.5 per cent in the fourth quarter, depicting average prices rising from $327.40 to $358.11 during the year.

The group, however, cautions that gold prices will remain weak as long as economic conditions remain strong and promising enough to keep investors from being interested in gold as a hedge against uncertainty.