Friendly caution

  US President Donald Trump, who announced 50 per cent tariffs on Indian goods in August, told the United Nations (UN) General Assembly in September that as top buyers of Russian oil, China and India had become the “primary funders” of the war. He also blamed the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) for “inexcusably” not cutting Russian energy products. But his administration’s more recent 28-point peace plan to end the war included a provision for Ukraine to cede land to Russia.

  In November, new official data showed a three-year low in India’s purchase of Russian oil. India, which imports most of its crude oil, got a price deal from Russia since the war started in 2022. India spent $52.7 billion on Russian oil in 2024. 

India has moved on from Russia even on arms to diversify sources and manufacture domestically. India imported 76 per cent of its defence goods from Russia between 2009 and 2013, and 36 per cent over 2019-23, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri).

  India-Russia relations cover defence (military-technical collaboration), security, nuclear energy, and outer space. The “strategic partnership” was formalised during Putin’s India visit in 2000, and upgraded to “special and privileged” 10 years later.

How India-Russia relations progress over Trump’s second tenure (until 2029) will depend on whether the US pressure is persistent and “painful enough to change India’s policy”, Petr Topychkanov, a senior researcher with Sipri’s nuclear  disarmament, arms control and non-proliferation programme, said.  

He added that Trump’s thinking changes often or when favourable deals that allow the US to withdraw pressure and achieve its goals emerge. 

  Will India’s and Russia’s efforts to preserve the bilateral agenda stay as strong and effective as before? Topychkanov, who is a Russia expert, said they will. Still, both countries will allow each other considerable freedom and space for manoeuvring as they recognise that their national interests are not always aligned. 

“We may witness temporary and limited downs among many ups between India and Russia, and both will tolerate that.”

Russian officials routinely address defence seminars in New Delhi. Bilateral projects include the production of BrahMos missiles, T-90 tanks, Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets, and AK-203 rifles in India. Russia has sold MiG-29 fighter jets and Kamov helicopters to India.  The Indian aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya was designed from the Russian warship Admiral Gorshkov. Commissioned in 2013, the Kudankulam nuclear power plant in Tamil Nadu is India’s only nuclear power facility established in collaboration with another country, Russia. The two countries work closely at multilateral forums such as the UN, the Group of 20, the Brics grouping, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. India and Russia agreed to inform one another about their foreign policy positions on important international issues in the declaration on strategic partnership. 

“If we dilute any part of the strategic ties, it will impact our foreign policy and security scenario,” Ajai Malhotra, India’s former ambassador to Russia (2011-13), said.

  But “strategic autonomy” means India would take its own decisions. “The world is witnessing dynamic recalibration, as geopolitical alignments are evolving. India needs to be agile. Now, India is well-endowed to not be anyone’s camp follower.” 

Malhotra said that strong relations with both Russia and the US are in India’s interest. 

Anuradha Chenoy, adjunct professor, international relations, O P Jindal University, said that members of India’s “strategic elite” with “stakes in the relationship” hope things get back to normal with the US.  

“India-US relations are relatively new compared to India-Russia relations that are stable and time-tested,” Chenoy said, adding that India has a raft of issues with the US. “The US wants higher tariffs on Indian imports but lower tariffs on US exports or much more market access in India.” 

Last year, India had some $50 billion trade surplus with the US while India’s trade deficit with Russia was almost $57 billion. Other than energy and defence, India bought fertilizers, minerals, precious stones and metals from Russia. India sold pharmaceuticals, electrical machinery and mechanical appliances to Russia. 

  The first dialogues of the foreign and defence ministers of both countries took place in 2021. No new defence deals had been announced in late November before Putin’s next visit. 

  In August, Minister of External Affairs S Jaishankar said during a joint news conference with Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow that Russia supports India’s “make-in-India” goals, including through joint production and technology transfer.   

  Although India’s reliance on Russian defence items has reduced, it still buys advanced goods such as the S-400 long-range surface-to-air missile system, used for air defence, including during the India-Pakistan conflict in May. Of the five S-400 batteries contracted at around $5.43 billion in 2018, the two pending — delayed by the Ukraine war — are expected to be delivered by Russia to India in 2026-27, according to Indian military sources. India might also look to buy more of the same system. 

India needs a stealth fighter jet, and making one under its advanced medium combat aircraft (Amca) project will take time. The Russian twin-engine, fifth-generation Sukhoi Su-57 fighter jet was displayed at the Aero India show in Bengaluru in February. When asked by the Indian media at the Dubai Airshow in November if there was official talk on the Su-57, the executive of a Russian state-owned company replied, “Whatever India’s military requirements are.”

  In October, Indian and Russian companies signed a deal to build a civilian aircraft in India. Topychkanov said India has a longstanding policy of diversifying its sources of military technologies and hardware, and Russia is not the first supplier. But jointly developing technologies through projects like BrahMos is a cornerstone of the bilateral cooperation. 

“It’s not just about the transfer of technologies, but about creating an ecosphere between the two countries, where new variations of existing weapons may be developed for the specific conditions of each other’s countries, and even new weapons may be built.”

  Dinesh Kumar Yadvendra, a former scientific adviser at the Ministry of Defence, said if India were to agree to a Su-57 deal, it should insist on manufacturing the weapons, too, because the infrastructure and know-how to make Sukhoi fighters exists. Plus, India has the expertise to make missiles, which could be integrated with the Su-57. “We should leverage our ties. It will boost India’s industrial base and defence production.”

When Russia started developing the Su-57 in 2002, it had offered a joint-development partnership with India. But India did not show interest. “We had our own plans for the Amca project. Today, Russian support for the development of a 5.5-generation 

Amca, leading to a sixth-generation fighter jet, would be worth considering,” Yadvendra said.

  After his meeting with Modi in Washington, DC, in February, Trump told the media that the US would pave the way for an eventual sale of the F-35 stealth fighter jet to India. It is unclear if the US offer — if it ever came — would be with the technology, unlike the French sale of Rafale fighter jets to India.

  US sanctions targeted India’s light combat aircraft programme after India conducted its second nuclear test in 1998. The US company General Electric provided the engine earlier.

  India buys 33 per cent of its defence goods from France, according to Sipri. India also buys from Israel (13 per cent), the US, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Sweden.  On Russia offering the Su-57 to India,  Malhotra said, “We must have a 

hard-headed approach. What are they giving us? What are the terms and conditions? India is thinking of making its own fifth-generation fighter jet.” 

Years ago, India talked to Russia about buying a fifth-generation fighter jet. India wanted a two-seat jet and was exploring if it could be bought from the US, but the country would keep the code and not give the spare parts either, a source with knowledge of the matter said.  

Malhotra said defence technology transfers from the US are often time-consuming, as they frequently require Congressional approval. “Russia would be a reliable partner for emergency defence purchases. Russian defence goods are hardy. They can be used in high altitudes and desert conditions.” 

India has also purchased the ultimate strategic asset — the nuclear reactor — from Russia. There is a progression towards peaceful nuclear cooperation, with ongoing work at the Kudankulam plant and increased involvement of Indian suppliers in Rosatom (Russia’s nuclear state agency) projects in third countries, such as the Rooppur nuclear power plant in Bangladesh, Topychkanov said. 

India has ambitious plans in the space sector, with dozens of satellites set to become operational over the next decade. “India has many other partners in both military and civilian areas, including the development and utilisation of space technologies. I have no doubt that Russia has its own role in helping India achieve its goals.” 

Newer areas of military-technical or military-technological collaborations between India and Russia are not known. A significant amount of information is now hidden from the public eye, partially to protect bilateral military cooperation from secondary sanctions, Topychkanov said. 

  Some 44 Indian nationals were serving in the Russian Army, as of November 7. The Indian government has warned citizens that it is an offer fraught with danger to life.

  Many older-generation Indians see Russia as a traditional friend. The (erstwhile) Soviet Union supported India during the 1971 war with Pakistan. The US and China backed Pakistan. Today, Russia and China are close to the extent that is possible. 

Chenoy said Russia is interested in improving relations among China, Russia, and India to promote multipolarity, as Russia 

increasingly “turns East”, also in the hopes of a greater Eurasia.

  Russia and China are trying to make the most of the bilateral relationship. They both are interested in Central Asia that Russia dominates politically and China commercially.

  Russia wants a peaceful border with China, so as to better  focus on its primary security challenge — Nato. China wants a quiet border with Russia while it “confronts the US and its allies”  from the Pacific side, Malhotra said.

  The Center for European Policy Analysis, a nonprofit based in Washington, DC, published a report in June on Russia-China economic relations. It said since the Ukraine invasion, Russia has been isolated economically, mainly by Western sanctions, and forced to rely on China. But the relationship is unbalanced because Russia is more dependent 

on China.

  “A ‘reverse Nixon’ strategy by the West — building relations with Russia to wean it off China — is unlikely to succeed because the economic ties are so important to both countries.”

  Former US president Richard Nixon managed to pull China away from the Soviet Union in the 1970s because the Sino-Soviet split (1961-89), border disputes and tensions related to the leadership of the communist world had already affected the relationship.

  Russia and China demilitarised and resolved their border disputes in the early 1990s. But lately, China has “renamed” eight Russian locations near its border, including the city of Vladivostok.  

Mukul Sanwal, an Indian former diplomat to the UN, wrote in The Hindu newspaper on November 22: “The US is upending multilaterism and reducing India’s strategic policy space in several key domains, as India’s relations with China improve and those with Russia strengthen.” For India, he added, it should be a case of “trust but verify” with China, while Russia is a 75-year-old tested partner. 

  A test of that friendship is coming up.