Bernstein quants downgrade Indian stocks, predict further upside for China

By Winnie Hsu and Abhishek Vishnoi

Bernstein Societe Generale Group’s Asia quant strategists have downgraded Indian stocks due to valuations, while predicting further upside for Chinese equities on a policy boost.
 

India’s market seems “to be quite vulnerable in the near-term driven by record high relative valuations to China and emerging markets,” quant strategists Rupal Agarwal and Cheng Zhang wrote in a note Thursday.
 

The quant strategists lowered their call on India to underweight from neutral, citing expectations for continued foreign outflows and weak earnings. They reiterated a tactical overweight stance on China following the recent stimulus measures and anticipation of “some concrete announcements” either at the finance ministry’s Saturday briefing or after the US election. 
 

The shift comes as a rally in Chinese equities in late September prompted funds to shift their money away from the rest of Asia. Foreign funds have pulled more than $5 billion from Indian stocks this month, with the benchmark falling over 3 per cent. 
 

Indian equities remain among the most expensive in the world, making them one of the targets for value-conscious foreign investors who may prefer cheaper markets. The MSCI India Index is valued at about 24 times one-year forward earnings, more than double the valuation of the MSCI China Index. 
 

Chinese shares have turned more volatile in recent days following a rally late last month that was fueled by the authorities’ stimulus announcement. The CSI 300 Index swung between gains and losses on Thursday after sliding 7.1 per cent in the prior session in its worst day since 2020.