Will Sensex, Nifty scale new highs in Samvat 2083? What tech analysts say

Tech analysts caution that the recent pullback in Nifty should not be considered as a trend reversal, and reckon that only a move beyond 24,780 could signal an improvement in the overall market trend.

Disclaimer: Views and outlook in this report belong to the brokerages and analysts cited. They do not reflect the views of Business Standard. Readers are advised to exercise discretion. Given the recent rally, analysts are optimistic about the market outlook and expect the positive trend to continue in Samvat 2083. On average, analysts expect the Nifty to reach within striking distance of its summit around 26,300, with a possibility of the rally extending toward the 28,000-mark. Meanwhile, the Sensex and the Nifty look set to end Samvat 2082 with notable losses. As of Wednesday, with two trading sessions to go, the Sensex and the Nifty were down 8.4 per cent and 7.3 per cent at 77,301 and 23,961, respectively. READ MORE 

Technical outlook on Sensex, Nifty for Samvat 2083

NIFTY

Key upside levels to watch: 24,800; 25,400; 26,300 Downside supports: 22,200; 21,780 

 

 Analysts at Kotak Neo believe that the Nifty to remain in a broad consolidation phase within the 21,700–26,300 range in Samvat 2083, before establishing a stronger directional trend. The brokerage believes that the market presents stronger opportunities in the new Samvat as corporate earnings have remained supportive. It, however, cautions that from a technical perspective, the formation of lower-highs on both the daily and weekly charts suggests that downside risks may have not completely disappeared for now. Muthuselvaraj M, Technical Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan expects the Nifty to display a positive trend for Samvat 2083 following the consolidation between 26,325-22,180 from December 2025 to October 2026. The analyst expects the upward trend to continue toward 24,700–25,400 over the next six months, and the bias to remain favourable as long as the index holds above the 22,000-mark. ALSO READ | New Samvat brings opportunities in mutual funds, equities and gold: Experts Pritesh Mehta, Executive Vice President-Institutional Equities Research at YES Securities expects a likely range of 22,000-26,000 for the Nifty. At the current juncture, the analyst believes that the possibility of a fresh lifetime high in Samvat 2083 appears to be a difficult proposition unless breadth improves meaningfully and leadership becomes more broad-based. Mehta believes that the Nifty continues to remain in broader consolidation phase, which is likely to persist into Samvat 2083. He cautions that the recent rebound should not be mistaken for the beginning of a runaway rally. "The October 2026 low around 22,200, which coincides with the three-digit Gann number of 225(00), forms an important floor. After months of leadership uncertainty, the last few weeks have seen leadership emerging, with the Nifty Top 10 Equal Weight Index gaining approximately 7 per cent on a QTD basis. Its ratio versus Nifty 50 has witnessed a sharp reversal, suggesting improving relative strength among select heavyweight stocks. Consequently, the sustainability of the current up move will depend on whether leadership broadens beyond a handful of large-caps," Mehta explains. ALSO READ | Nifty Smallcap looks stronger vs Midcap index, can hit new high: Analysts Echoing a similar stance, Sachin Gupta, VP-Research at Choice Broking believes that the markets are entering Samvat 2083 on a cautious note, with benchmark indices trading near important long-term support levels. From a technical perspective, Shah flags that the Nifty has shown resilience after witnessing a sharp rebound from its 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which also coincides with a multi-year rising trendline support. "The Nifty has attracted buying interest on several occasions around the 22,000 mark, while 21,700 remains an important long-term support. The monthly chart shows signs of recovery, with the index finding support around the Ichimoku Cloud and the 50-month EMA," says Shah. On the upside, the analyst sees 24,780 as the immediate hurdle, above which Shah expects the sentiment to improve and a possibility of gradual rally towards 26,300. Further upside could take the Nifty towards 28,380, a key Fibonacci Extension level, during Samvat 2083, adds Shah. 

Sensex

Key upside levels to watch: 77,800; 80,000; 82,000; 83,000 Downside supports: 73,200; 71,300; 67,000 

 

 Shah of Choice Broking believes the 200-week exponential moving average at 73,200 will be the key support for the Sensex as we enter Samvat 2083. If selling pressure intensifies, the next major support is placed around 71,300, from where the Sensex witnessed multiple rebounds on the weekly chart, he adds. On the higher side, Shah reckons that a decisive move above 77,100 could improve the technical outlook and open the way towards 80,500. If the recovery gathers further strength, the Sensex could gradually move towards 83,000–86,000 over the medium to long term. Muthuselvaraj of Mirae Asset Sharekhan believes that a breakout above 77,800 could lead the Sensex toward 80,400-82,000, with support anticipated around 71,300 in Samvat 2083. Conversely, a break below 71,300 could trigger a retest of the major medium-term support at 67,000. Pritesh Mehta of YES Securities pegs an upside target of 84,000 on the Sensex in Samvat 2083.