OIL Supply

India is expected to face oil price volatility and broader macroeconomic effects from the escalating Iran crisis, analysts said, adding the country's oil supply chain does not yet face structural insecurity. Rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz - through which a significant share of India's crude and LNG imports transit - have already pushed Brent crude prices toward a seven-month high of USD 73 per barrel, adding a geopolitical risk premium to global energy markets and heightening inflation and current account pressures, even as physical supply disruption remains unlikely in the near term. "In the current escalation scenario, the initial impact is likely to be price-driven rather than volume-driven. A geopolitical risk premium would lift Brent prices, alongside increases in freight rates and war-risk insurance costs," said Sumit Ritolia, Lead Research Analyst, Refining and Modelling at commodity market analytic firm Kpler. Even in the absence of physical shortages, landed ..

OPEC+ is expected to extend its pause on oil production increases in March, even as geopolitical tensions and Iran-related risks push crude prices higher

Global inventories are expected to build by an average of 2.8 mbpd through the first half of the year, marking the largest surplus in recent memory

Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE flared last month over a decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-aligned group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government

Forecasts from major energy bodies suggest a trend toward inventory builds and moderated prices, contingent on geopolitical stability and production policies

The halting of supply from the two Gulf exporters means Nayara, majority-owned by Russian entities including oil major Rosneft, relied entirely on Russia for its crude oil imports in August

The government has no say in where the country's refiners source oil from because these are commercial transactions, the official reiterated

Iran is the third-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, pumping 3.2 million barrels per day in January, according to a Reuters survey of OPEC output

Widened sanctions on Moscow by western countries including the United States have roiled global oil trade and forced buyers of discounted Russian crude to find new ways to maintain their purchases

Weak demand, particularly in top importer China, and non-Opec+ supply growth were two factors behind the move

At present, the prospects for oil are looking better for consumers like India despite the escalating hostilities

Global oil demand is experiencing its slowest growth since 2020, primarily due to weak demand from China and a drop in Russia's global oil supply

Demand growth to be driven by India, China

Prolonged OPEC supply cuts and international sanctions on Venezuela, Iran and Russia had already led to shortages of heavier crude

U.S. refineries have been running more heavy Canadian crude because of its ample supply, with Gulf Coast refiners ramping up their intake by around 10% on the year, according to data

The ongoing attacks on shipping vessels by Houthi militants in the Red Sea have not impacted the flow of crude oil to India but freight has gone up due to rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL) chairman Pushp Kumar Joshi said. India, the world's third-biggest oil importer, gets a bulk of its Russian supplies through the Red Sea. Russian supplies made up for over 35 per cent of India's total crude imports in 2023, amounting to 1.7 million barrels per day. Russian ships and cargoes are not being prime targets of the attacks at this stage however rerouting of ships around the southern tip of Africa instead of transiting through the Suez Canal and Red Sea has led to ships taking longer voyages, resulting in the shortage of ships and rise in freight charges. In a post-third quarter earnings call with investors, Joshi said HPCL has tied up crude oil supplies till mid-April and it does not see any supply disruptions. HPCL meets 44-45 per cent of it

Brent futures settled 54 cents lower at $78.56 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 67 cents to settle at $73.41

Fifty years after the 1973 Arab oil embargo, the current crisis in the Middle East has the potential to disrupt global oil supplies and push prices higher. But don't expect a repeat of the catastrophic price hikes and long lines at the gasoline pump, experts say. The Israel-Hamas war is definitely not good news for oil markets already stretched by cutbacks in oil production from Saudi Arabia and Russia and expected stronger demand from China, the head of the International Energy Agency said. Markets will remain volatile, and the conflict could push oil prices higher, "which is definitely bad news for inflation, Fatih Birol, executive director of the Paris-based IEA, told The Associated Press. Developing countries that import oil and other fuels would be the most affected by higher prices, he said. International benchmark Brent crude traded above $91 a barrel on Thursday, up from $85 per barrel on Oct. 6, the day before Hamas attacked Israel, killing hundreds of civilians. Israel ...

Brent futures touched their highest since November 2022 on Thursday, hitting an intra-day peak of $97.69 a barrel. Meanwhile, WTI hit highest intra-day price since August last year at $95.03 barrel

The jitters follow a fire at a Marathon Petroleum refinery last week, after a chemical leak ignited two giant storage tanks filled with volatile naphtha