OPEC+ set to ratify March output pause as Iran risks lift oil prices higher

OPEC+ is expected to extend its pause on oil production increases in March, even as geopolitical tensions and Iran-related risks push crude prices higher

OPEC+ is on track to ratify its plans to pause production increases in March, delegates said ahead of the group’s online meeting on Sunday. 

Key members led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed back in November to halt a rapid revival of output during the first quarter, citing a seasonal slowdown in oil consumption. 

The alliance has reaffirmed the policy at monthly gatherings, and three delegates said on Sunday they expect it will confirm the pause for March, repeating views expressed last week. They added that they don’t expect to discuss plans beyond the first quarter. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are staying the course even as the prospect of US action against OPEC member Iran sends oil prices jumping. Brent futures hit a four-month high of $71.89 a barrel last week after US President Donald Trump warned Tehran to make a nuclear deal or face military strikes. 

OPEC+ and its partners often respond cautiously to escalating geopolitical risks, typically waiting for changes in actual supplies before acting. 

Eight OPEC+ nations had rapidly revived production last year in an apparent bid to reclaim their share of world markets, but then agreed in November to pause further increases during the first quarter. 

The decision has in part been validated by events. While many forecasters still anticipate a substantial supply glut to form, prices have been supported by turmoil in Iran and disruptions in fellow alliance member Kazakhstan.

 

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