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Southeast Asian nations — witnessing a drop in Chinese tourist arrivals and a pressing need to diversify their visitor base — are turning their attention to India. In a bid to reduce their overreliance on a single market, countries across the region are easing visa rules, launching promotional campaigns, and rolling out competitive travel packages to lure Indian travelers.
Fresh data from global travel intelligence provider OAG, which accounts for scheduled capacity through March 2025, signals a sharp upward trend: Total seat capacity between India and six Southeast Asian countries — Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Myanmar — is projected to climb 15.6 per cent in calendar year 2025 compared with the previous year. That figure marks a milestone, hitting 10.8 million seats for the first time, up from 9.35 million in 2024. The 2025 projection also represents a 29 per cent jump over pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
While Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia remain the top destinations in terms of passenger seat capacity in flights, Vietnam has emerged as the biggest gainer. Indian arrivals to Vietnam in 2024 jumped nearly 3 times from 2019 levels. Scheduled seat capacity is expected to rise 20 per cent in 2025 to 0.9 million seats, thanks in part to a revised bilateral agreement inked last year that increased weekly flight entitlements from 28 to 42. Vietnamese carriers, including Vietnam Airlines and VietJet, have been quick to capitalise, securing significant market share on the route.
India, a virtual non-player in Vietnam’s inbound travel charts just five years ago, has vaulted to become the country’s sixth-largest source market in 2024. According to industry observers, Vietnam is also eyeing an ancillary role as a transit hub for Indians flying onward to China, where direct air connectivity remains elusive despite ongoing dialogue.
“Clearly, Southeast Asian countries are wooing India aggressively -- they see a huge market ready to spend on tourism and longer holidays,” says Anil Kalsi, vice president of the Travel Agents Federation of India. “Liberal visa regimes like free electronic visas in Thailand and Malaysia and visa-on-arrival in Indonesia and the Philippines have helped. And our average per-person spending is clearly going up. So even countries that were previously quiet are now eager to launch direct flights.”
The trend is evident in Cambodia, where national carrier Cambodia Angkor Air launched a twice-weekly direct service between Delhi and Phnom Penh last year. OAG projects 20,000 seats on this route for 2025. Similarly, the Philippines, largely dormant in the Indian market after the pandemic, is reentering the fray with a new direct Delhi-Manila service from Air India starting October 1.
Indonesia, another key player, revamped its bilateral air agreement with India in January, now allowing 9,000 one-way seats per week. While both IndiGo and Air India operate direct services, the current frequency still falls short of demand: More than 650,000 Indians traveled to Indonesia in 2024, with that figure expected to rise to 710,000 this year, according to aviation consultancy Pear Anderson.
Indonesian low-cost carrier AirAsia Indonesia is reportedly eyeing expansion into southern India, with OAG projecting 220,000 seats in 2025, a number that still underscores the unmet potential for direct connectivity.
Meanwhile, Indian airlines are slowly clawing back market share from foreign competitors in the India–Southeast Asia corridor. In 2024, they accounted for 35.08 per cent of total seat capacity on these routes, up from 32.8 per cent in 2019. That figure is expected to rise further to 37.4 per cent in 2025, suggesting that Indian carriers are beginning to assert themselves in this fast-growing travel theater.
