 "COP28, climate change, environment")
Even as the majority of countries, ranging from rich to developing islands, strongly condemn the weak language around fossil fuel phase-out in the penultimate draft of the Global Stocktake at 28th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations (UN) Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), India would stand to benefit from the fine print around brown and green fuels.
The draft text released on Monday has remained silent on the phase-out of fossil fuels, which had appeared as a legitimate goal, backed by many countries for the first time in climate negotiations.
India has been vociferously demanding that the phase-out should cover all fossil fuels, including oil and gas, and not just coal.
Climate justice and energy security
The draft’s language around fossil fuel is extremely lopsided towards oil-producing nations, including the host United Arab Emirates (UAE).
“Reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly, and equitable manner to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050 in keeping with the science,” says the draft.
But for coal, it says, “Rapidly phasing down unabated coal and limitations on permitting new and unabated coal power generation.”
The draft does not have a single mention of oil/natural gas separately.
Negotiators representing the Global South, including India, said the country, along with Group of 77 (G77) and BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India, and China) groups, has objected to singling out coal in the draft.
“The Global South is united in its demand that the Global Stocktake cannot be outside the purview of the Paris Agreement and CBDR-RC (common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities) principles. These nations have also pointed out the entire Paragraph 39 (which pertains to greenhouse reductions) needs to be reframed,” said an official.
CBDR-RC calls for climate action and financing according to the economic status and emission levels of the nations.
“There is a high chance this is the final draft. UAE as a host is not capable of attacking the fossil fuel industry. For India, this is a chance. We have always supported CBDR–RC. Under that, we continue to accelerate green energy-led growth, but the energy security of 120 billion people requires coal and oil,” said a senior official.
Even before the climate summit began, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas had been keen that the Indian delegation should stick to its position that further investment in developing and extracting oil and gas resources is needed in tandem with the exploration of carbon-free alternatives.
“Discussions on a phase-out of fossil fuel have been led by developed economies. The economic realities of developing countries like India and least developed nations have to be evaluated carefully. A blanket push to phase out fossil fuels at this point may not be the best approach,” a senior official said on Tuesday.
According to the International Energy Agency, India’s share in global oil demand is 5.5 per cent in 2023, much below the US’ 20 per cent and China’s 16.1 per cent. However, it is rising at a fast clip and is set to hit 6.6 per cent over the next five years.
Meanwhile, India’s primary energy demand will nearly more than double to 38.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2045, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries believes.
Coal, which is the main driver of India’s electricity supply, will also remain a mainstay in the energy basket.
India signed for a tripling of renewable energy at the Group of Twenty (G20) but abstained on the same at COP28 as it involved committing to the expiry date of coal.
After China, India is the world’s largest coal consumer. India’s annual coal demand is due to cross the 1-billion mark soon. Thermal power accounts for close to 75 per cent of India’s electricity generation despite rapid growth in renewable energy sources.
“India is going to ramp up renewables, but it does not mean the end of coal. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report says countries that have already taken up their carbon space have left very little space for us. That is our fair share. We have to fulfil our aspirations. We told the UN Secretary-General that climate justice is important in tackling climate change. We need to meet the energy needs and ensure a dignified life for our people,” said a senior negotiator representing G77, of which India is also a part.
New green economy
The language around green fuels is also a plus for India and its plan on biofuels. The text has called for utilising zero and low-carbon fuels such as biofuels, “well before or by around mid-century”.
India has been crucial in drumming up support for biofuels on the world stage and has pitched the Global Biofuel Alliance (GBA), on the sidelines of COP28.
Led by India, Brazil, and the US, the GBA was formed at the last G20 Summit in New Delhi and aims to reshape the global landscape and expedite the uptake of biofuels worldwide by accelerating technology development, bolstering policy frameworks, and exchanging best practices. On the sidelines of the ongoing COP28, India has focused on expanding the GBA, with an eye on African nations and smaller economies.
The draft text has also resolved to hasten the adoption of carbon removal technologies, including carbon capture and utilisation and storage, and low carbon hydrogen production, to substitute fossil fuel. Both technologies have been eyed by India for a few years, and investments are shaping up now. India has also signed a global agreement at COP28 for the growth of battery storage.
