Sweeps and stakes in Nepal: No single party likely to win clear majority

A clean sweep by any single political party is unlikely in Nepal's forthcoming elections, which could mark a return to the politics of loaves and fishes

Superficially, it is all back to normal. Regency Watch Pvt Ltd on Kathmandu’s Durbar Marg is the authorised Nepal partner for Cartier, Omega, Hublot, and other luxe brands. It is open for business again. Customers are thronging the Himalayan Java Coffee, Nepal’s own Starbucks. Both enterprises had to suspend operations on September 9, when they got letters from the local administration, imposing a curfew after the so-called GenZ movement exploded into a 40-hour revolution, which replaced the Prime Minister, suspended Parliament, and torched many public places: The blackened broken windows of the Supreme Court and the pile of burnt-out shells of cars are eerie reminders.

 

But here’s the thing about Nepal. It has always looked outward regardless of troubles at home. The Nepalese have been among the most enthusiastic participants in South Asia’s international labour force. Foreign remittances continue to contribute nearly 30 per cent to Nepal’s gross domestic product. This does not include the informal labour force in India, which is mostly not documented.

 

Little wonder then that one of the primary demands of GenZ activists is that the diaspora be allowed to vote in the upcoming general elections, due March 5. The power of the Nepalese diaspora was evident in the rise of the TV personality Rabi Lamichhane-led  Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). It was formed in June 2022, and won 20 seats in the general elections in November that year. The diaspora made extensive moral and material investment in his party, but more than that, it tapped a vein of discontentment in Nepali society that continues to throb.

 

Mr Lamichhane proved to be a god that failed. From being home minister, he was charged with citizenship fraud, embezzling public money, and other offences. He is currently in prison, although he continues to be working president of the RSP.

 

When the GenZ movement broke out, people were quick to draw the conclusion that it was the Lamichhane effect at work. But it wasn’t: But a number of political actors saw Mr Lamichhane’s rise and thought they could mimic it. Among them was Kulman Ghising, now energy minister, who launched his own political party, the Ujyaalo Nepal, earlier this week.

 

Mr Ghising is an electrical engineer who studied in Jamshedpur, supervised hydel power projects in Nepal, and eventually rose to oversee the Nepal Electricity Authority but was sacked when he and the K P Oli-led government went head to head on the recovery of electricity dues from industrial firms. The sum ran into millions. Mr Ghising ordered that power be cut to those who hadn’t paid for it. Mr Oli saw the potential dangers from the move. The GenZ referendum supported him to become a minister in the current government. His popularity lies in efficiency: He is the one who set Nepal’s dysfunctional power sector back in order and ended 18-hour power cuts. The twist in the tale is: As minister, he also heads the United States-backed Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), which has given a grant to modernise Nepal’s physical infrastructure, especially power and roads. The diaspora at work or American power? Hard to say but Mr Ghising enjoys the support of both.

 

Right now, talks are on between the RSP and the Ujyaalo Nepal for political coordination. If this arrangement works out, mainstream political parties will be up against the diaspora’s invisible might, America’s unstated but firm support, and overall disgruntlement at the state of politics. Many argue that this is largely a product of unsatiated ambition in Kathmandu and surrounding urban areas. But Nepal’s digital infrastructure is extensive and even in small villages, people know about the GenZ hero Kulman Ghising. In Kathmandu, he has the backing of the mercurial but highly popular mayor Balen Shah.

 

Could the Ghising-Lamichhane combine pose a real challenge to the cadre-based organisation of the Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), the Nepali Congress, and the Prachanda-led 10-party alliance, the Communist Party of Nepal? Hard to say. But this much is true: That with barely 90 days to the general election in Nepal, there isn’t time to rejig Nepal’s electoral system, which incorporates both a direct election and a proportional representation system. In the circumstances, it is hard to envisage a clean sweep by any one political party, leading to the inevitability of a coalition government. This, in turn, will mean political arbitrage and the return of the politics of loaves and fishes. Great Games but very little change.