It’s now official. The International Monetary Fund’s latest outlook confirms that global growth is likely to decline, with risks skewed to the downside. A tariff-driven stagflationary shock for the United States, and a demand shock for the rest of the world are likely ahead.
What does this mean for India, and how should we position ourselves? The answer lies in assessing the impact through both a cyclical and a strategic lens.
The cyclical lens
The immediate impact is negative for growth. India’s ultimate exposure to the US — its direct exports to the US, and its value added in other
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