The consensus bullish forecast

Markets and economies are complex, emerging, adaptive systems

Isn’t it puzzling that although economic and financial forecasts have a terrible record, the media publishes dozens of them at the beginning of the year on economic growth and how stock indices would fare at the end. Forecasting is a more formal and well-recorded business in the US, and so it provides great examples of forecasting follies. The consensus view in the US for 2023 was that the S&P 500 would fall; instead, it climbed 24.2 per cent, and the Nasdaq 100 soared over 50 per cent. The Chinese stock market was expected to rebound on post-Covid “reopening” but it