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Policymakers and pundits in Delhi have been quick to declare the United States (US)-China trade war a golden opportunity for India. As supply chains fray and geopolitical tensions deepen, could India finally seize a slice of China’s enormous export pie? On the surface, the logic is appealing. If tariffs and restrictions make Chinese goods less welcome in American ports, surely the world’s largest democracy—with its low labour costs and burgeoning industrial base—can fill the gap. But beneath the optimism lies a more sobering reality.
To begin with, the scale of China’s export machine is staggering. In 2024,
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