In his previous stint as President, Trump took his country out of the Paris Agreement on climate change and the World Health Organization (WHO), refused to allow appointment of Director-General (D-G) of the World Trade Organization (WTO), made the dispute settlement mechanism at the WTO dysfunctional by refusing to appoint enough judges to hear the appeals, started a trade war with China, frayed relations with European allies, failed to provide necessary leadership during the Covid-19 pandemic, renegotiated the free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico, left the trade talks with Pacific Rim countries and generally gave much more attention to domestic issues. He has said that if elected, he would hike the tariff across the board by 10 per cent and impose 60 per cent tariffs on imports from China.
Kamala Harris has so far not talked much on trade matters, except criticising Trump’s plans to hike tariffs on imports as inflationary. It appears she will continue the policies of the Biden administration, when the US rejoined the Paris Accord on climate change and the WHO, allowed the appointment of the D-G to the WTO and improved relations with European allies but did not revive the dispute settlement mechanism at the WTO or lower the tariffs imposed by Trump on imports from China or rejoin the Trans-Pacific trade negotiations. The views of Harris on strengthening global institutions or promoting global trade are not very well known. During the campaign, she may be subjected to more scrutiny and asked to state her position on trade-related issues clearly.
The global trade is quite fragmented with developed countries trying to restrict import of goods from China and trying to source their requirements from nearby and friendly countries. China is going through a downturn due to slowing domestic consumption and trying to utilise the available capacities better by exporting at discounted prices. Chinese companies are trying to establish capacities in friendly countries from where the markets of developed countries can be accessed easily. Russia is cut off from developed countries directly but is getting necessary goods through its neighbouring countries. The sanctions of the developed countries against many Russian banks and businesses have not had significant impact on the ability of Russia to pursue its war against Ukraine. Meanwhile, disruptions in shipping through the Suez Canal and the Panama Canal have pushed up transport costs in some sectors. In the last decade, the US has lost much of its influence in the world. However, it is still a leading economic, political, and military power and therefore, how Trump and Harris approach global issues matters a lot to India and rest of the world.
Email: tncrajagopalan@gmail.com
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