New Brics in the wall

Amid expansion, India beware Beijing's ambitions

As was widely expected, the summit of the Brics grouping — consisting, for now, of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — ended with some big news: The announcement that the grouping would be expanded. This was promised in the statement following the last leaders’ meeting, but it had been widely reported that India, in particular, was not completely happy with aspects of the planned expansion. The official word, however, is that subject to certain criteria — new countries will be permitted to join the grouping. The first such list of countries consists of Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Argentina. China, which has been pressuring for the inclusion of Saudi Arabia, in particular, in the hope of weaning that country away from its US-led alliances, will be pleased. India may feel somewhat outmanoeuvred, but it can at least content itself with the sense that Iran will be a useful foil to Saudi Arabia, and that the UAE — a close strategic partner of India — is among those chosen.

The exact nature of this expansion is unclear. Some South African officials have spoken of a “two-tier” system, in which presumably the founding members retain certain specific importance even as the bloc expands. Much will depend on the exact details of this membership. The mitigating circumstance here is that, after all, the Brics grouping is just that: A grouping, with few powers or levers at its command beyond those visible in the separate bodies with their own governing structure, such as the New Development Bank, which it has set up. India must protect its own interests amid this expansion.

China’s motives are transparent and widely understood: To create a new set of plurilateral institutions that mimic the post-war multilateral order, but which exclude the Western powers. Its leaders expect that these new institutions and mechanisms could serve as the building blocks for a new Beijing-led world order. Even if the Brics-plus grouping does not turn itself into an explicitly anti-American alliance — which is certainly not in India’s interests — New Delhi should still be on its guard at the Brics and other forums. The proliferation of China-led groups will be a worry for India. If more countries exist in such groupings, China’s economic and military dominance will be visible in a bigger way as against the hard power and finance that India and others can bring to play.

The mitigating circumstance for India is that it is better to be inside the room as Beijing makes these efforts than to be outside. China, given the aggressive foreign policy of President Xi Jinping, will reach out to other constituent countries of the Global South, whether India likes it or not. It may work out better in this case that India ensures, through its presence and leadership, that these new institutions not be entirely subject to the requirements of Beijing’s foreign policy. A new third-worldism, reminiscent of the post-colonial Bandung era, seems set to emerge. India will, however, enter this period with its eyes open and be aware of the threats. After all, it took very little time for the spirit of Bandung to turn into the Himalayan tragedy of 1962.