Power planning: Proactive management key to preventing shortages

With early heatwaves hitting parts of India this year and the India Meteorological Department predicting the possibility of even more intense heat than in 2024, which was the hottest on record, the demand for power is expected to touch new highs this summer. According to a report in the The Indian Express, the National Load Despatch Centre (NLDC) has warned that the demand-supply gap could touch 15-20 Gw during May and June, especially during “non-solar” hours.  The Grid Controller of India, the NLDC’s parent organisation, has predicted a one-in-three chance of a shortfall in May alone. The government is cognizant of a looming problem and has since last year worked through an inter-ministerial group comprising the Ministries of Railways, Coal, and Power to coordinate plans to ensure thermal power plants — which account for 72 per cent of the country’s energy supply — are adequately stocked with coal. With 90 per cent of thermal power plants coordinating with the railways to front-load coal stocks, reserves have risen 20 per cent to 53.49 million tonnes (as of March 10) against 44.51 million tonnes on the same day last year. The current coal stocks are sufficient for about 20 days for a generator operating at a plant load factor of 85 per cent.

 

Such proactive planning, which aims to avert the crisis that hit in 2022, causing over 1,000 passenger trains to be cancelled to make way for coal freight, is being enhanced in two ways. First, capacity has been augmented and processes streamlined along the ₹51,000 crore Eastern Dedicated Freight Corridor (DFC), which shouldered much of the burden last summer. These improvements are collateral gains from the pressures on passenger track capacity during the Kumbh Mela, which forced the railways, which delivers around 83 per cent of the coal for thermal plants, to shift nearly all freight movement to the eastern corridor. Second, efforts are being made to bolster coastal shipping and inland waterways to serve as additional modes for transporting thermal coal, particularly in southern states, although this route remains relatively expensive.

 

Such forward planning could go a long way towards reducing shortages but there are misgivings about how far it can bridge the power-demand gap. India’s baseload power capacity, which is dominated by thermal power, has been stagnant in recent years against growing demand. Though rising solar generation helps meet peak demand during daylight hours, it still accounts for just 16 per cent of generation. More to the point, solar power is mostly unavailable to service the new surge in demand in the evening and night hours as more Indians can afford to run air-conditioners, fans, and coolers. To ensure grid stability, the Central Electricity Authority issued an advisory last month for energy-storage systems to be colocated with solar projects. Such storage systems can store surplus solar power during the day and release it when demand surges beyond daylight hours. Right now, however, storage systems are inadequate — just under 5 Gw against the installed renewable capacity of 200 Gw. This is an area that urgently needs to be addressed as part of an inclusive power-planning package to ensure India avoids a power crisis and meets a key climate-change goal in the process.