Stalemate in Gaza

International support for Israel is weakening

Seven months since it began, the Israel-Hamas war has reached a stalemate. Though neither of the combatants is nearer to achieving its objectives, Israel’s failures have been magnified because of the disproportionate military power it wields. The Israeli military has reduced Gaza to rubble but is no closer to eliminating Hamas or rescuing Israeli hostages captured by the group during the shock assault in October 2023. Despite attacking Gaza with the most sophisticated weapons supplied by the United States (US) and Europe, 129 Israeli hostages remain captive and most of the Hamas leadership is at large. Rockets fired into Israel from Rafah recently suggest that Hamas retains robust retaliatory capacities, thanks to its sponsor, Iran. Israel, thus, is caught in an asymmetric guerrilla war. US hopes of concluding a West Asian alliance to build on the Abraham Accords of 2020 (between the US, Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain) have been thwarted as rumblings of discontent on Arab Street against Israel’s treatment of Palestinians have encouraged Arab powers to back off. Most of all, international support for Israel is rapidly weakening.

Having earned almost universal sympathy for the Hamas attack, in which over 1,200 people (including children) were killed and 252 people taken hostage, Israel’s offensive in Gaza, resulting in the reported death of over 36,000 Palestinian civilians (including some 15,000 children) with over 80,000 injured, has attracted widespread outrage. Its ground operations in Rafah attracted almost worldwide condemnation following a strike that burned down a tent city of displaced Palestinians. Earlier this month, the United Nations (UN) General Assembly adopted a resolution with 143 votes in favour (including India), nine against, and 25 abstentions, recognising Palestine’s bid to join the UN and recommending that the Security Council consider it favourably. Since then, Norway, Ireland, and Spain have formally recognised Palestine as a state. Last week, the International Criminal Court (ICC) sought arrest warrants for both Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity. The ICC’s founding statute has been signed by 124 countries, including Israel’s European allies, and obliges them to arrest individuals with warrants if they travel to those countries. On May 30, in a case brought by South Africa against Israel last year, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel to halt its military assault on Gaza. In January, the ICJ had ordered Israel to take all measures within its powers to stop the conflict in Gaza. Though these rulings will be difficult to implement in this escalating conflict, they carry considerable symbolic power.

Meanwhile in the US, Joe Biden’s presidential re-election hangs in the balance with rifts within the Democratic Party over the US’ unconditional military support to Israel in its war against Hamas. The protests searing through US university campuses point to deep reservations among younger voters of all ethnicities — including the Jewish community — against Israeli operations in Gaza. With divisions erupting within the Israeli Cabinet over the war, it is possible that Mr Netanyahu and his hawks may face a reckoning soon. But with the annihilation of Gaza and below-the-radar evictions of Palestinians on the West Bank, it is possible that the two-state solution has been overwhelmed by the facts on the ground, raising new, unique challenges for the international community.