Tone and substance

Subtle shifts in the texture of Sino-US ties

The charm offensive by the United States (US) as it seeks to mend relations with China appears to be gathering momentum since President Joe Biden met his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at a summit in Woodside, California, in November last year. The official readouts of that meeting suggested that both leaders candidly outlined their differences on trade and geopolitics and agreed to keep talking. The upshot of this has been hectic diplomacy on both sides, mainly to stake out their positions on a range of differences. This much was clear in a rare visit by China’s foreign minister Wang Yi to Washington after a gap of five years in October last year and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing late last week. This was Mr Blinken’s second in less than a year and follows the passage of an aid package for Taiwan and a stiff deadline by US authorities to Chinese company ByteDance to sell its stake in TikTok, the popular short video service.

The substance of Mr Blinken’s meetings with Mr Xi and Wang Yi was to underline US discomfiture with Beijing’s “no limits” partnership with Moscow, on the basis of which China supplies Russia many critical and sophisticated components (though no lethal weaponry) to feed its military-industrial complex. Several retaliatory moves have been made as a result of these geopolitical alignments. In August last year, the US curbed investment in the Chinese semiconductor, quantum computing, and artificial intelligence sectors, which, the administration argued, could have military applications. In turn, China slapped export restrictions on two key minerals essential to semiconductor production — gallium and germanium — which has caused serious problems for Silicon Valley’s semiconductor industry.

Many of the issues discussed were repeats of Mr Blinken’s June 2023 visit, but it is concerns over Chinese trade practices that form the heart of the troubled relationship. This was underlined by a message communicated by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on her second visit to China earlier this month when she euphemistically highlighted China’s “overcapacity” in key industries. Taken together with a cordial phone call between Mr Xi and Mr Biden in the days preceding Ms Yellen’s visit, such energetic diplomacy has indubitably established a positive tonality in superpower relations.

As yet, both countries appear to be sticking to their red lines; but, given the complexity of superpower diplomacy, the positives are being seen in the willingness to communicate rather than in concrete policy moves. Certainly, Mr Xi, seeking to stoke faltering economic growth, has gone out of his way to woo US industry, which, however, may now find investing in the country too risky. This follows raids last year on the officers of three US market research firms and consultancies. In March this year, Mr Xi met US business leaders in Beijing to underline the importance of mutual trade ties and counter the narrative of a Chinese economy struggling to recover from the Covid shock. Mr Xi reminded Mr Blinken that 2024 was the 45th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and China and warned against “vicious competition”. It is probable that both countries are waiting for the verdict at the hustings in November to decide the next course of action. If Mr Biden returns to power, Beijing may resume the momentum. Should Donald Trump return to the White House, tensions could increase again.