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India, nearly invisible at last year’s 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) in Baku, Azerbaijan, plans a louder presence in Belém (often called Belém of Pará, the capital and largest city of the state of Pará in northern Brazil). In Baku, even Pakistan and Bangladesh set up bright stalls while India sent only a small team of climate officials. That low profile jarred for a nation growing fastest among major economies — and among the fastest in emissions. This year, officials say, New Delhi will push hard for accountability on finance and technology, pressing the Global North to own its historical emissions and finally honour its funding pledges.
Developing nations want a clear plan to unlock $300 billion a year in climate finance and easier access to clean-tech know-how. Also pending are the operational rules for Article 6, the United Nations’ (UN’s) international carbon-trading framework, adopted in the final hours of COP29. Brazil, this year’s host and a biofuel powerhouse, is keen on securing major funds to halt Amazon deforestation.
“COP29 was an improvement, especially with the new quantified finance goal — raising the commitment from $100 billion to $300 billion annually by 2035,” said Vibhuti Garg, director for South Asia at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA). “But it still falls far short of what’s needed to stay within 1.5°C.”
Gates turns down the apocalypse dial
The mood heading into Belém is wary. Microsoft founder Bill Gates struck a surprisingly calm tone this week, writing, “Although climate change will have serious consequences, it will not lead to humanity’s demise. People will be able to live and thrive in most places on Earth for the foreseeable future.”
That marks a shift from his 2021 book How to Avoid a Climate Disaster — The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need. Gates now argues that the climate community has grown too fixated on short-term emissions goals. “Unfortunately, the doomsday outlook is causing much of the climate community to focus too much on near-term emission goals. It’s not too late to adopt a different view and adjust our strategies for dealing with climate change. Next month’s global climate summit in Brazil, known as COP30, is an excellent place to begin,” he wrote. ALSO READ: COP out? The world's climate talks on global warming seem stuck in repeat
Tuesday’s memo appears to amount to a major reframing of how Gates is thinking about the challenges posed by a rapidly warming world, The New York Times said.
His pivot comes as tech giants pour hundreds of billions into energy-hungry, water-guzzling data centres — most still powered by fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, a UN Framework Convention on Climate Change report released on October 28 on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) warns that global emissions are falling far too slowly. Reviewing 64 updated pledges covering 30 per cent of global output, it finds that even if all are met, emissions would drop only 11–24 per cent below 2019 levels by 2035 — well short of the 60 per cent cut needed for 1.5°C.
The report does not yet include China, which accounts for 29 per cent of global emissions and has offered only a modest 7–10 per cent reduction by 2035. India, Indonesia, Mexico, and the European Union have yet to file updated NDCs.
Baku: The bargain that wasn’t
India’s delegation left Baku feeling short-changed. Senior officials accused the host of bending procedure with tacit support from rich nations and the Arab group.
Developing countries and activists had demanded $5–6 trillion in total financing for mitigation, adaptation, and loss and damage — of which $600 billion to $1.3 trillion was meant to be public transfers from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries by 2030. The final outcome: “at least $300 billion by 2035 for developing-country parties.”
“COP29 set the right ambition — trebling global renewables and linking them with storage — but fell short on converting that intent into actionable finance and technology pathways,” said Vineet Mittal, chairman of Avaada Group. “For India, the gap between ambition and capital access remains our biggest constraint.”
OECD nations currently claim to mobilise $80–90 billion yearly, but only $10 billion of that is direct public grants, said R R Rashmi, distinguished fellow at The Energy and Resources Institute and a long-time climate negotiator. “The numbers are padded with loans and private flows. The pattern will likely repeat for the $300 billion target,” he warned.
India’s chief negotiator Chandni Raina called the new goal “too little, too distant”, arguing that India alone needs $1.3 trillion annually until 2030 to meet its energy-transition targets.
A UN analysis echoes that urgency: “A major acceleration is still needed to deliver faster and deeper emission cuts and to ensure the benefits reach all countries.”
Running on low battery
“We’re at the doorstep of another COP, and expectations are for focused — not generic — announcements to accelerate energy transition,” said Debmalya Sen, president of the India Energy Storage Alliance.
Battery energy storage system (BESS) is the missing link, said Dhanya Rajeswaran, global vice-president and country managing director for India at Fluence. “Storage makes renewables reliable and dispatchable, stabilising the grid. India is halfway to its 500 gigawatt non-fossil target by 2030; BESS can deliver the needed acceleration.”
Uncle Sam sat this one out
“Looking ahead to COP30, expectations are high for a COP of implementation — one that turns promises into measurable action,” said IEEFA’s Garg.
But such action will be hard without the US, which effectively abandoned the 2015 Paris Agreement under Trump.
“Without the US, momentum weakens. It remains the world’s primary driver of finance and technology,” Rashmi observed.
Series concludes
Key COPs: The climate thermometer of our times
COP1 (1995), Berlin
Raised doubts about nations’ ability to meet emission pledges
COP3 (1997), Kyoto
Birth of the Kyoto Protocol; binding 5% cuts below 1990 levels and creation of carbon markets
COP6 (2000), The Hague
US bid for “carbon sink” credits sparks a walkout
COP8 (2002), New Delhi
Called for tech transfer; adopted the Delhi Work Programme on public climate awareness
COP11 (2005), Montreal
Kyoto Protocol takes effect; extended beyond 2012
COP15 (2009), Copenhagen
Chaos and compromise; rich nations fail to win binding deals
COP16 (2010), Cancún
Created $100 billion Green Climate Fund and global tech network
COP20 (2014), Lima
Split widens over “common but differentiated responsibilities” on emission cuts
COP21 (2015), Paris
Landmark Paris Agreement commits world to limit warming “well below 2°C”
COP24 (2018), Katowice
Greta Thunberg’s rally cry as US quits Paris deal, China steps up
COP26 (2021), Glasgow
First call to “phase down” coal; India, China soften the final text
