China's expansionist playbook: A case study

A collection of essays brings out the various challenging facets of Sri Lankan politics and its foreign policy, constantly attempting to balance the pulls and pressures of its geopolitical environment

Teardrop Diplomacy: China’s Sri Lanka Foray 

Author: Asanga Abeyagoonasekera 

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Publisher: Bloomsbury

Pages: 312

Price: Rs 699

Asanga Abeyagoonasekera’s book Teardrop Diplomacy explains how China acquired, within the space of a few years, overweening influence in Sri Lanka. It is a compilation of essays and articles he has written, “from the rise of the Rajapaksha regime in 2019 to the political-economic crisis in 2022”. These pieces, grouped in five sections, cover the steady expansion of China’s political and economic engagement in Sri Lanka, the impact of a more competitive geopolitical environment on the country, the triangular India-US-China dynamic, the drivers of Sri Lanka’s foreign policy, its domestic politics and, finally, the fragile security situation that is the outcome of these different yet interrelated factors.

The author demonstrates that China was able to exploit a corrupt but populist political leadership, to entrench itself in key sectors. In building the Colombo Port City on reclaimed land, the Chinese have been granted extraterritorial privileges. Terminals built for commercial shipping have been used for docking of military vessels, including Chinese submarines. The book is a case study of how ostensibly commercial projects undertaken by China often have a significant security dimension. The two specific instances cited in the book relate to Chinese insistence on one of its submarines docking at a Chinese-built terminal in Colombo in 2014 and a more recent docking, in August 2022, of a sophisticated surveillance and tracking ship, the Yuan Wang, at Hambantota port in the south. This has been leased to a Chinese state-owned company for 99 years in lieu of repayment of loan and interest extended for the port project.

The book also draws attention to a Chinese preference for financing for logestation infrastructure projects such as ports, railways, highways and power projects. These are viable only if they can generate returns that enable repayment of loans and interest. They usually do not, because the rate of interest charged is comparatively high. It was 6 per cent in the case of Hambantota. The overall cost is inflated in order to enable large payoffs to political leaders and other influencers. The economic viability is compromised because the location and scale of a project is often determined by political considerations. That certainly happened in the case of Hambantota, which is in Gotabaya Rajapaksha’s constituency. During my tenure as foreign secretary, a feasibility study by an Indian public sector firm had deemed the project unviable because Colombo port had considerable excess capacity already and was adding more container terminals.

That such projects could still be undertaken has been directly linked to the authoritarian proclivities of the Rajapaksha clan with no tolerance of any public scrutiny and dissent. The normal checks and balances that a vibrant democracy enables have been progressively weakened. The road to the eventual collapse of the Sri Lanka economy had much to do with the growing distance between the ruling elite and the populace and the breakdown of feedback mechanisms that could have provided early warning of the impending crisis. This is a key message that emerges from the book.

China’s diplomatic playbook has changed in recent years. We witness a readiness to intervene in the domestic politics of target states, actively supporting or opposing key political actors. Its influence operations have dramatically expanded into various social groups such as labour unions, business and industry and media. This trend comes out clearly in the book.  The Chinese were able to mobilise politicians, business leaders and trade unions to compel the Sri Lankan government to cancel a port terminal project awarded earlier to an India-Japan consortium. The distribution of financial largesse and other benefits is part of the playbook that countries like India are unable to copy.

While Mr Rajapaksha has resigned from the presidency after violent public demonstrations in Colombo, the current incumbent is dependent on the Rajapaksha political machine to remain in office. However, the crisis has resulted in creating space for India to get back into the game, and it has to some extent, by providing support and assistance to its neighbour in its hour of acute need. It is also worth noting that the crisis brought people of all ethnic and religious groups together in opposing an authoritarian regime. The tried and tested tactics of sowing division through manipulation of sectarian sentiments did not work. But neither did it succeed fully in uprooting the powerful political clique. It only pushed it into the background.

Mr Abeyagoonasekera’s book is full of insights on Sri Lankan politics and its foreign policy challenges, constantly attempting to balance the pulls and pressures of its contested geopolitical environment. The lessons he highlights have relevance to other South Asian countries that are also beset with fragility. The book would have made a greater impact, however, had it not been just a compilation of articles and columns penned over a period of time. There could have been better editing to avoid needless repetitions. The rich material could have been organised into a coherent narrative.

The reviewer is a former foreign secretary and an honorary senior fellow, CPR