Farm sector growth may remain at 2.5-3% in 2014-15

Drop in kharif farm production to weigh, poor monsoon to blame

India’s farm sector growth, which slipped to 3.2% in the second quarter of the 2014-15 financial year as against 5% during the same period last year, is expected to remain in the 2.5-3.0% range for the full year due to a drop in kharif farm production.

Agriculture growth in 2013-14 was 4.7%.  Growth in the April-June quarter of 2014-15 was around 3.5%. 

“Full year agriculture growth is expected to be around 2.5-3.0% as against more than 4% in 2013-14 due to drop in kharif foodgrains on account of poor monsoon. Though rains revived in the latter half of the southwest monsoon season, but it will not be sufficient to wipe off the entire deficit,” Ramesh Chand, director of National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy Research (NCAP) said.

The southwest monsoon, which is lifeline for millions of farmers across the country, was over 40% less than normal in the first 45 days of the four-month season that started from June. It recovered appreciably thereafter, narrowing the deficit to around 11% by the season end in September. 

However, the MET office said despite the recovery rainfall was less in around 30% of the country and normal in the rest. Four sub-divisions (Himachal Pradesh, west Uttar Pradesh, east Uttar Pradesh and Telangana) saw deficient to scanty rainfall during the four months. 

Rainfall in June was 57% of the Long Period Average (LPA), while it was 90% in July and August and 108% in September. Long Period Average is the average rainfall that the country receives during the last 50 years. 

The maximum impact of the uneven rains was in the final production of coarse cereals, oilseeds and pulses. However, with rains recovering late, there is possibility of better harvest during the Rabi season, sowing for which started from middle of November. 

As per the government’s first advanced estimate, foodgrains production in 2014-15 is expected to be around 120.27 million tonne, around 9 million tonne less than last year. 

Production of rice is expected to be 88 million tonne as against 91.69 million tonne last year, while that of coarse cereals is expected to be 27.05 million tonne as against 31.25 million tonne last year. Kharif oilseeds production is expected to be around 19.66 million tonne as against 22.40 million tonne last year, while that of pulses is expected to be around 5.20 million tonne, down from 6.02 million tonne last year.