A month on, taking stock of what happened in J&K during Ramzan ceasefire

While stone-pelting saw a decline during the Ramzan ceasefire with no operations initiated by security forces leading to fewer mobilisations, terrorism-related incidents increased considerably

It’s been more than a month since a ceasefire announced by the Centre during the Islamic holy month of Ramzan ended in Jammu and Kashmir. Business Standard analyses data provided by South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP) to understand what happened on the ground in the militancy-hit state.

The data, compiled from media reports, suggests stone-pelting incidents saw a drop between May 17 and June 17 in comparison with what was reported in the previous month, but explosions and terror-related incidents spiked during that period.

On May 16, the government said security forces will halt counter-insurgency operations during Ramzan, in the first ceasefire in J&K in more than 17 years. The unilateral ceasefire came into effect on May 17. And after a month, the Centre scrapped the suspension of military operations on June 17.

According to SATP, a website that tracks militant activities, 19 stone-pelting incidents were reported in J&K between April 17 and May 16. They caused 10 fatalities and left 207 people wounded.  In the May-June period, 14 such incidents, which caused three deaths and 56 injuries, came to the fore. Ramzan in 2017 had witnessed 81 incidents of stone-pelting. There was no record of such incidents a year before that, SATP's data said.

Ajai Sahni, the executive director of Institute for Conflict Management, attributed the fall in stone-pelting incidents to fewer operations by security forces. This meant fewer chances of mobilisation for stone-pelting crowds that gathered to protest against securitymen, Sahni said.  

On the other hand, “terrorist-related violence” (termed so by the government and/or the agency that reported the incident) saw an increase in 2018’s Ramzan. Between April 17 and May 16, there were 24 such incidents. They led to 36 fatalities, including that of five security personnel and 14 terrorists. The number of such incidents jumped to 64 in the May 17-June 17 period. These caused 36 deaths, including that of nine securitymen and 23 terrorists, suggested SATP data.

The killings of Rising Kashmir Editor Shujaat Bukhari and army jawan Aurangzeb were two dark chapters in this period. The 48-year-old editor, who was in his car, was attacked by three gunmen on a motorcycle in Srinagar. Aurangzeb, who was posted in southern Kashmir, was abducted and killed after he left his camp on June 14.

“This was a particular incident (Bukhari’s killing) which was intended to destroy whatever may have been thought to be the possible achievements of the ceasefire,” Sahni said.

According to him, the attack on the veteran editor was aimed at ensuring that the State did not get any benefit from the ceasefire decision. He said the strike also wanted to create an environment where the ceasefire could not be extended.

During the ceasefire, the number of explosions too saw a sharp increase --- from two in the April-May period to 20 during Ramzan. Sixty-eight people were wounded in these incidents in the holy month compared to the five injuries reported the month ago.

Also, Ramzan saw a rise in the number of ceasefire violations by Pakistan along the Line of Control (LoC) and International Border (IB). SATP data suggested as many as 66 incidents of ceasefire violations were recorded during Ramzan. These resulted in 18 fatalities (that of 11 civilians and seven securitymen). In the April–May period, 10 such reported incidents killed four people, including three securitymen and a civilian.

“Pakistan decided that it could not allow the Ramzan ceasefire to result in an extraordinary success. Because if it did, then it would suggest that it has been willy-nilly accepted by the people of Kashmir. So, they needed to keep the violence up,” Sahni said.

The comparison is between April 17-May 16 period and May 17-June 17 period.