Covid-19: Low testing in India hints at lockdown extension beyond May 17

India's curve, yet to flatten vis-a-vis countries with similar or more conservative plans to ease restrictions, still points to 'exponential growth', despite India having tested much fewer people

The government on Friday announced an extension in the current state of nationwide lockdown –enforced to prevent the spread of coronavirus on March 24, and subsequently extended till May 3 – by another two weeks, until May 17, with curbs targeted at cities and “hotspots”. It gave a go-ahead to re-opening of businesses in areas designated as Green zones and Orange zones – mostly rural areas.
 
Technically, this makes lifting of restrictions even in the Red zones possible after May 17. However, a comparison with some countries that have experienced a far worse coronavirus (Covid-19) spread than India, gives two insights.
 
First, India’s curve is yet to flatten vis-a-vis countries that have similar or more conservative plans to ease restrictions. There have been marked flattening of the curve in Turkey, Singapore, the US, and France. Asian peers are experiencing a similar fate, with the curve refusing to get horizontal. India is showing only a slight indication of flattening.
 
And second, the curve has remained at 45 degrees to the X axis – meaning exponential growth – despite the fact that India among the group has tested much fewer people. France’s number of tests has been nearly 15 times India’s number per capita.
 
Simple ways to read the graphs: For each country, new cases are plotted against existing stock of cases till a particular date, and the line traces time. New cases are usually quite small compared to the latter, which keeps growing. However, both the variables are plotted on a logarithmic scale, which makes their growth comparable.
 
To cut the jargon, this method gives a straight line at 45 degrees to the X axis for a perfect exponential growth. Please note that the number of days for doubling could be different for different countries, and this graph does not show that rate. It simply shows whether exponential growth is still going on, or has subsided.
 
India, along with other Asian countries, is still behind other developed countries in this respect.
 
Yet, France is lifting restrictions after May 11, which is not far from India’s current date of easing curbs, May 17. Singapore, on the other hand, is revoking its “circuit breaker” (curbs) on June 5, despite having flattened the curve and controlled deaths.
 
At the same time, if testing is ramped up in India in coming weeks, there is a strong likelihood that cases will multiply fast. This will put more pressure on the curve to remain linear at 45 degrees to the X axis – that is, exponential.
 
At 700 tests per million – less than 0.1 per cent – India is nowhere near the advanced economies that have tested more than 1 per cent of their population.
 

 

Notice that the curve is either getting horizontal or bending downwards for the US, Singapore or Turkey, but not for India yet. These three countries have done 15 times more tests per million people than India. Low cases per million people in India could be masking the real spread of Covid-19 in the country, and that would take longer for us to flatten this curve.  

The known fact that South Korea has been able to stop new cases is visible from the curve hitting the X axis. Similarly, following a high death incidence in France, its curve has started looking down, which is way better than having a horizontal turn to the curve which the US shows. Saudi Arabia and Indonesia have not been able to flatten the curve yet, and their trajectory is similar to India’s. However, the oil kingdom leads in the number of tests conducted per million people, while Indonesia lags even India in that respect.  

How India compares with others in tests, deaths and cases



What’s the outlook on lockdown relaxation in these countries?




Note: New cases refer to average of new cases in the past seven days