A mathematical model says India's Covid-19 caseload may hit 14.57 mn by Jan

The model developed by researchers at IIT Kanpur is based on the epidemic curves of 8 other countries

A mathematical model developed by researchers at the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) predicts India's Covid-19 caseload to hit 14.57 million by January 2021 while the Centre gears up to combat the pandemic as the country heads into a festive season and the winter, according to a report in the Mint.

The researchers have modeled their epidemic curve, a statistical chart used to visualise a disease outbreak, based on the curves for 8 nations which include Belgium, France, Germany Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Switzerland, and Turkey.

“Our model predicts that the daily cases for India’s covid-19 epidemic are falling,” Mahendra Kumar Verma, professor of physics at IIT-Kanpur told the Mint. Verma, however, warned the curve might deviate if people fail to follow Covid-19 guidelines.

A model commissioned by the Department of Science & Technology (DST) had predicted the total cases would hit 10.6 million by 2021.

India's active coronavirus caseload is continuing to see a declining trend. As of Thursday, it stood at 6,03,687 cases comprising 7.51 per cent of the total positive cases in the country, according to the health ministry.

The declining trend of active cases is supported by a rising number of recovered cases. The total recovered cases crossed 73 lakh (73,15,989) on Thursday. 

However, social gatherings during festivities, deteriorating air quality, increasing incidences of respiratory disorders have attributed to a rise in coronavirus cases in Delhi, the ministry said on Thursday in a review meeting held by Health Secretary Rajesh Bhushan. Cases have also risen sharply in Kerala, West Bengal, Maharashtra, Karnataka amid the festive season.