Lessons for third Covid wave: Vaccination protects against hospitalisations

England data shows that after vaccination, hospitalisation rate has dipped to an all-time low of 2.5%. The death rate, at 0.2%, is the lowest as well

Despite the dip in Covid-19 infections across most districts, researchers warn that the government needs to brace for another wave. Indeed, people need to follow social distancing norms. However, a Business Standard analysis shows that vaccination can go a long way in preventing a repeat of the country's dreadful conditions during the second wave.  Data indicates that vaccinated countries seem to be doing better against SARS COV-2 and its existing variants.

The UK, which has been witnessing a fourth wave of infection due to rising delta variant cases, has been immune from a high death rate or hospitalisation. A Business Standard analysis shows that England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have fully vaccinated nearly 60 per cent of their population, whereas 82 per cent of people have received the first dose.

Even though cases have started rising again across the UK, the hospitalisation rate (weekly average of daily hospitalised patients as a ratio of previous week’s average of daily infections) in England is at its all-time low since the start of the pandemic. There is an inverse correlation between hospitalisations and vaccination.
 

Although daily infections in England have increased nearly five-fold in the last month from 2,623 to 10,325, hospitalisations have only doubled. Resultantly, the hospitalisation rate has reduced drastically to 2.5 per cent.

In October last year, when the country dealt with its second wave of infections and recorded over 10,000 cases each day, hospitalisations had increased to 5.8 per cent. As cases crept up in subsequent weeks, hospitalisations reached 7.5 per cent.

In the third wave, starting December 2020, the hospitalisations had hit a peak of 11.8 per cent, and the rate finally settled at 8-9 per cent. Even though a quarter of the population had received the first dose by February 10, hospitalisations in the country were still a high 10 per cent. However, once the country administered the first dose to 50 per cent of the population, hospitalisations started declining. Now that over 80 per cent of the population is vaccinated, hospitalisations are down to 2.5 per cent.
 

Deaths have followed a similar trajectory. From a high of 4.3 per cent, the death rate (weekly average of daily deaths as a ratio of previous week’s average of daily infections) in England declined to 0.2 per cent on June 11. The UK reports data on daily deaths with a lag. 
 

Cases in the US are falling, but California, which has a better vaccination record than most of the other states, has also witnessed a drastic decline in the death rate. As 60 per cent of the population has received its first dose in California and nearly 48 per cent is fully vaccinated, the death rate has hit an all-time low of 0.2 per cent. Until a month ago, California’s death rate was 1.7 per cent. At its peak, the death rate had increased to 3.8 per cent.

So, India needs to vaccinate a large mass of the population before the onset of the third wave. India has indeed increased the daily rate of vaccination but has only been able to administer the first dose to 19.2 per cent of the population and fully vaccinate just over 4 per cent of the population.

If 4.5 million people are vaccinated every day, India will be able to vaccinate 60 per cent of its population by December.