Monsoon arrives over Kerala after a week's delay: IMD

If accurate, India might have its heaviest monsoon rainfall since 1994 in 2016, and also be well-distributed

Rains reached the Kerala coast on Wednesday, a day after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted southwest monsoon would hit the southern state on June 9. Even though there has been a nine-day delay in the arrival of monsoon, it’s not expected to make much difference on its progression over rest of the country barring a minor hold up over central India.

“The delayed onset of monsoon over Kerala does not mean its progression over rest of India would be tardy. In fact, all our models show that rains would pick up pace in the second half of June,” said L S Rathore, director-general of IMD. According to him, the southwest monsoon normally reaches Mumbai around June 10 and this year it might be there by June 11-12.

The met department said on Wednesday that in the next 48 hours, southwest monsoon would see progress in Karnataka, southern Andhra Pradesh besides Kerala and Tamil Nadu.  Nearly half of India's farmlands, without any irrigation cover, depend on annual June-September rains to grow a number of crops. Farmers plant rice, cane, corn, cotton and oilseeds during the rainy months of June and July.

On May 15, the IMD had forecast that monsoon would hit Kerala around June 7 - a delay of six days from its normal onset. The forecast was with a model error of plus and minus four days.  Last week, the met department had retained the ‘above normal’ forecast for 2016 southwest monsoon at 106 per cent of the long period average (LPA, 50-year average of rains), with heavy rains predicted over north-west, central and south peninsular India.

If IMD's forecast turns out to be accurate, India will have its heaviest monsoon rainfall since 1994 in 2016. IMD said rains in July and August would be normal at 107 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA, respectively. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus nine per cent.

The met department said there would be "no significant" change in maximum temperatures in northwest India, which is reeling under intense heat, for the next two or three days.

Heat wave conditions are likely at a few places over Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Heat wave is also likely in parts of Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Gujarat.

“A normal monsoon this year will help put a tap on food inflation and in turn offset rising pressures from crude oil prices and sticky services inflation. We believe inflation would therefore average 5 per cent in fiscal 2017,” Rating Agency CRISIL said in a research report.