Steep death graph, no peak yet: Why India is behind the curve on Covid-19

While the mortality rate seems to be plateauing in UK , Spain and Italy after peaking, in India he bad news is that it hasn't reached the high point after which it can start tapering off

Mortality is the biggest cost that Covid-19 has imposed on mankind. The virus has engulfed over 192 countries, bringing practically the whole world to its knees the past several months. The pandemic has impacted livelihood, displaced large swathes of people, forced mass migration and, above all, taken countless lives. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), nearly 6.3 million people worldwide have tested positive for coronavirus and more importantly, the death toll stood at a staggering 379,941 on June 3. While some countries have yet to come to terms with the disease, others are emerging as the new hotspots. 

India and Russia have recently become epicentres of confirmed cases. May has turned out to be an explosive month for the two nations in terms of both, new confirmed cases and deaths. During the month, India and Russia witnessed 450 per cent and 260 per cent growth in confirmed cases, respectively. The numbers of deaths also rose significantly. On May 31, India surpassed France to become seventh most infected country in the world. The country has lost three ranks in just six days starting May 25, when it took the tenth position on the world table, with a total of 138,000 confirmed cases.

Europe and the Americas have borne the brunt of the Covid-19 outbreak. As on June 3, the US reported more than 1.8 million confirmed cases, followed by Brazil (526,447). The LatAm nation, in fact, quickly became the epicentre of the virus, with a five-fold surge in the number of infections just in the month in May. Other badly affected countries such as Italy, the UK and Spain have also been severely impacted by the contagious virus the past several months.

A heatmap analysis of the mortality rates of some of the worst-affected countries throws up some interesting stylized facts. The mortality rate is defined as number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. The heatmap indicates 4 different phases, which can be defined as nil or low mortality (0-2 per cent), moderate mortality (2-4 per cent), heating-up mortality (4-6 per cent) and high mortality (>6 per cent).

Italy, Spain and the UK have been in the high end of high mortality phase consistently for the pst two months. Italy, for example, entered the high mortality phase as early as March 10 and consistently had large fatalities thereafter. Over the past few days, the death situation has worsened in Italy with the mortality rate remaining above 14%. Similar alarming levels of fatalities have also been seen in the UK and Spain recently. 

However, fatalities in these countries seem to be peaking out as per recent trends of new deaths and confirmed cases. In recent days, the five-day moving average of new deaths has started falling and went below 20-day moving average, indicating flattening of fatalities in these countries.  

America is the worst-affected nation of Covid-19. The country had, of course, fared well earlier in containing mortality, limiting it to the nil or low phase for 78 days till April 5. However, America’s death toll began rising rapidly thereafter. The US has been in the high mortality phase, at slightly over 6 per cent all through the last month.  

The impact of the ravaging Covid-19 seems to be plateauing in the US recently. The country has prevented its death rate from escalating further. Trends of new deaths in the US also show sign of stabilisation as its five-day moving average has been consistently below its 20-day moving average of deaths during the past few weeks.

India, which saw a spurt in Covid-19 cases in May, has been reporting 7,500 new cases every day for the past one week. More importantly, some 200 deaths a day have been recorded the past few days. The mortality rate in India is in the moderate phase according to the heatmap analysis. However, trends in new deaths and coronavirus cases are not in India’s favour. The five-day moving average of deaths is inching up vertically, which is a worrying signal for a densely populated country like India.  

Similar alarming trends are also being seen in Brazil and Russia. Brazil, for example has reported over 1,000 deaths every day since May 21. While Brazil is already in the high mortality phase, Russia surprisingly continues to be in low mortality phase despite a significant number of infected cases. 

It is apparent that recent trends of new confirmed cases and deaths are not supportive of countries like India, Brazil and Russia. These countries have of late emerged as coronavirus hotspots. With countries reopening due to economic pressure, there is a risk looming large for soaring coronavirus cases and deaths. 

Chakradhara Panda is a Senior Data Scientist at  IBM India Pvt Ltd and P C Biswal is Professor, MDI Gurgaon. Views expressed are personal