A third of India under drought fear

With industry not looking up, weak farm output could add to govt's worries

Fear of a drought this year has got more pronounced among policy makers and analysts, with the southwest monsoon heading for a break from North India and likely to get scattered in the central and western parts of the country.

The government has not spoken about a drought yet. But, in hushed voices, officials of ministries concerned are discussing the possibility of a drought hitting 30 per cent of the country’s land area this year.

Experts say the government may have to embark on a fire-fighting mission to meet any eventuality if the situation does not improve by tomorrow.

DECODING DROUGHT

• Moderate drought: Rainfall deficiency between 26% and 50% of normal
• Severe drought: Rainfall deficiency more than 50% of normal
• Drought year for a country: If the area affected by a moderate or severe drought comprises 20-40% of total geographical area; rainfall deficiency in the entire country exceeds 10%
• In 2002: Rainfall deficiency for the season (June 1 to Sept 30) was 19%; 29% of India’s geographical area was drought-hit; production of rice fell by 21.5 mt and coarse cereals by 7 mt, YoY
• In 2009: Rainfall deficiency around 27%; foodgrain production fell by 7% compared to the previous year

A lower farm output may itself not spell doom for the larger economic growth, since it accounts for only a little over 16 per cent of India’s GDP. But, it could be bad news in conjunction, given that the industrial growth has also been weak, at just 0.8 per cent in the first two months of this financial year. Even for June, the signs are not very bright, as merchandise exports declined 5.4 per cent and imports a whopping 13.4 per cent, year on year, in the month.

July is the most important month in the four-month southwest monsoon, as more than 30 per cent of the total rainfall in a season comes in this month. In 2009, when the country was hit by a drought, rainfall in July had been around 20 per cent less than normal, while it had been 54 per cent less than normal in the month in 2002.

This year, though rains have been one per cent above normal till July 13, the prediction by the India Meteorological Department of a break for at least seven days has worried the officials.

If the June numbers are also added, 60 per cent of the country’s land area has received less than normal rainfall till July 13.

Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices (CACP) Chairman Ashok Gulati told Business Standard the current situation was comparable with the drought of 2009 — both in terms of spread and total rainfall.

So far, no state, barring Karnataka and parts of Maharashtra, has officially been declared drought-hit. But, most fear, if the situation or crop condition does not improve appreciably after July 15, other states may also be declared drought-hit.