Below-normal rains likely in northwest India

In August, intensity of monsoon might decline across the country, says meteorological department

This year, rainfall in northwest India, including Delhi and the primary grain-producing regions of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, might be below normal, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today.

It added in August, the intensity of the southwest monsoon was expected to decline across the country. Below normal rains in the northwest parts is unlikely to make any major impact on kharif crop output as more than 80 per cent of the area is irrigated. However, some impact could be felt on the rabi crops if ground water levels drops sharply.

Releasing the second-stage forecast for the southwest monsoon this year, the department said in August, cumulative rainfall across the country was expected at 96 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), while in July, it was expected to stand at 101 per cent of the LPA. Both predictions have a model error of +/- nine per cent.

LPA is the average rainfall in the country in the last 50 years.

IMD classifies rainfall between 90 and 96 per cent of the LPA as below-normal; rainfall between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA is classified as normal. Rains below 90 per cent of the LPA are considered deficient, while rains above 104 per cent are above-normal.

"There should not be much worry if rain in the northwest is 94 per cent of LPA, if distribution is even. The bigger cause of concern is if rains in July and August are less than adequate, as those are crucial months for sowing of kharif crops," D K Joshi, chief economist at Crisil told Business Standard.

IMD said during the four-month southwest monsoon, rainfall in northwest India was expected at 94 per cent of the LPA. In the southern peninsula comprising Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Kerala, rainfall is expected at 103 per cent of the LPA. In the drought-hit central and western parts of the country, rainfall was expected at 98 per cent of LPA. According to IMD's classification, this region accounts for Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh and Odisha.

For the northeastern states of West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, Tripura, etc, IMD said rainfall is expected at 98 per cent of the LPA.

All these predictions had a model error of +/- eight per cent, IMD said. Across the country, rains are expected to be normal---at 98 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of +/- five per cent.

The southwest monsoon, the lifeline of millions of farmers across the country, hit India on June 1, its scheduled date of arrival; thereafter, it saw steady progress. IMD said during the June 1-13 period, the country received above-average rainfall.