India economic growth to moderate to 5% in 2009-10: ADB

The Asian Development Bank today today projected that India's economic growth would slow down to 5 per cent in 2009-10, the fiscal which begins tomorrow.

Growth for 2008-09 has been kept at 7.1 per cent with downward risk, said Bruno Carrasco, director, South Asia department, ADB, while releasing the ADB outlook 2009.

Carrasco further said since the scope for further fiscal stimulus is limited, the Reserve Bank of India can consider monetary measures in the backdrop of inflation coming down.

As regards the rate of inflation, he said, "It may turn negative in the coming weeks but there is no possibility of India moving into a deflationary mode".

The Consumer Price Index is still high and not likely to show negative trends, he said.

Inflation dropped to a three-decade low of 0.27 per cent, raising fears that the economy is moving towards deflation.

The growth rate, following the global financial meltdown, is likely to dip from a high of 9 per cent in 2007-08 to 7.1 per cent in 2008-09.

As against the 7.1 per cent GDP growth rate also projected by the Central Statistical Organisation for 2008-09, Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia had earlier said that it could be around 6.5 per cent.

The Indian economy grew at 6.9 per cent in the first nine months of this fiscal.