India GDP may plunge to 4.7% in 2009: S&P

Global rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P) today said that India's growth rate could dip to as low as 4.7 per cent during 2009 in line with the global recession and moderating domestic demand.

"Growth prospects deteriorate sharply on the back of the weak domestic demand due to drying up of available credit channels and capital outflows," S&P said in its latest Asia-Pacific Economic Outlook report.

In worst case scenario, the GDP growth would slide down to 4.7-5.2 per cent while in usual course the growth is estimated to be in the range of 5.8-6.3 per cent.

However, the government's fiscal measures should hasten recovery by 2010, it said.

S&P Asia Pacific Chief Economist Subir Gokarn said that as part of the easing monetary policy measures the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) might reduce repo (short-term lending) rate by 100 basis points and reverse repo (short-term borrowing) rate further.

After hiking its signalling rates till October last year, the apex bank started slashing its cash reserve ratio, repo and reverse repo rates to support growth.

The RBI reduced its CRR to 5 per cent, repo to 5.5 per cent and reverse repo to 4 per cent and infused over Rs 4,00,000 crore into the system.