Skymet predicts above normal monsoon in 2016

Met dept forecast today; agri secy says normal rains expected

Skymet, a non-government weather forecaster, said on Monday that the year's southwest monsoon should be slightly ‘above normal’, at 105 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA). The error margin is plus or minus four per cent.

Rainfall within 96-104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal and anything above as 'above normal'. LPA is 889 mm, the average rain the country got in the 50 years from 1951.

Above normal rain would ease the drinking water crisis engulfing several parts of the country and lift the farm sector, which has seen a drop in growth and a low in farmgate prices. A little more than half of India's arable land relies on the June to September southwest monsoon for water. About 70 per cent of the total annual moisture in a year comes from this.

Skymet is the first major Indian weather forecasting agency to have issued a monsoon forecast for 2016. The agency is credited with correctly predicting the 2009 drought but its first forecast went wrong in 2015. The government's India Metereological Department is to issue its first forecast on Tuesday.

In 2016, said Skymet, there is a 20 per cent of rainfall being excess, 35 per cent chance of it being above normal, 30 per cent possibility of it being normal, 10 per cent chance of it being below normal and only a five per cent chance of the season being a drought. “In total, there is 85 per cent chance of the rainfall season in 2016 not being drought or below normal," a senior official said.

On a month-on-month basis, Skymet said the monsoon in June would be around 90 per cent of the LPA, of 164 mm. July rainfall would be 105 per cent of the LPA, of 289 mm. August should see 108 per cent of the LPA of 261 mm; September, 115 per cent of the 173 mm LPA.

“The El Niño (weather effect) is likely to continue till the onset of monsoon and taper thereafter. It is not likely to have an adverse impact on the monsoon performance. Pre-monsoon showers will be more intense during May," said Jatin Singh, chief executive of Skymet.

“There is risk of rainfall being slightly below normal in Tamil Nadu and north interior Karnataka, while it will be good in central and western India," said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at Skymet.

In 2014 and 2015, India suffered back-to-back droughts for the fourth time in a little over 100 years, when the southwest monsoon was 12 per cent and 14 per cent below normal, respectively.

Union agriculture secretary Shobhana K Patnaik said she expected a normal monsoon.

Foodgrain production declined to 252.02 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) from a record 265.04 mt the previous year, due to a poor monsoon. The output is estimated to rise slightly to 253.16 mt in the ongoing 2015-16 crop year, with 14 per cent less rain.

RAINS TO BRING RELIEF

• Skymet says monsoon in 2016 to be above normal at 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA)
   
• Rains in June to be 90% of LPA, July 105% of LPA, August 108% of LPA and September at 115% of LPA
   
• Rainfall between 96% and 104% of LPA considered normal