Assembly elections: A test of BJP's defence in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh

Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will go to the polls in a few weeks. Aditi Phadnis explains everything you wants to know about the political state of play in these two states

Gujarat

Seats in the Assembly: 182

Seats reserved for SCs: 13

Seats reserved for STs: 27

Last Assembly elections were held in 89 constituencies on December 9, 2017, and in 93 constituencies on December 14, 2017. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) formed a government, headed by Vijay Rupani. In 2021, Rupani was replaced by Bhupendra Patel, a first-time member of legislative Assembly (MLA), albeit with a long inning in local politics.

The regional picture

Broadly, Gujarat is divided into four regions — Kutch, geographically the largest but with the lowest density of population and Saurashtra, with important commercial centres like Rajkot and Jamnagar (54 seats); north Gujarat (53 seats) with the administrative capital city of Gandhinagar and Mehsana, which is the hub of milk cooperatives; south Gujarat (35 seats), with the commercial hub Surat; and central Gujarat (40 seats), where the erstwhile capital Ahmedabad, the state’s largest city, is located.

Last election saw the BJP perform spectacularly in North Gujarat, getting more than 50 per cent vote share.

In Saurashtra and Kutch, it was the Congress that gained seats and the BJP’s tally came down substantially. In 2012, the BJP won 35 of 54 seats but in 2017, it could win only 23.

The performance in south Gujarat was marginally negative for the BJP: It was down three seats in 2017 over 2012. The Congress improved its tally slightly.

In north Gujarat, both parties maintained the same seat tally they had posted in 2012.

In central Gujarat, which has a sizeable Muslim population, the BJP improved its tally by five seats. The Congress went down by a similar number. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which contested only 29 seats in 2017 is being cited as a disrupter this time.

Big issues ahead of this year’s election

Unemployment and ways to mitigate rural distress is the biggest issue in this election, followed closely by health management and infrastructure.

This is reflected in the moves made by political parties and their promises. Recognising that at the heart of the stir for an upper caste (Patel) reservation that cost the BJP dearly in 2017 (the party came to power but with its slimmest majority ever) was employment insecurity, the state BJP government in 2019 immediately accepted a Union government announcement that 10 per cent jobs shall be reserved for economically weaker sections, regardless of caste.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has promised a Rs 3,000 per month unemployment allowance and more government jobs. The Congress, mindful that Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute more than 50 per cent of the population, has proposed welfare measures specifically for these communities.

The Gujarat government under previous CM Vijay Rupani was repeatedly pulled up by the high court for its poor record in handling the Covid-19 pandemic. For voters, the promise to revamp the health infrastructure is a priority.

Himachal Pradesh
 

Seats in the Assembly: 68

Reserved for SCs: 17

Reserved for STs: 3

Last Assembly elections were held in a single round of polling on November 9, 2017. P K Dhumal, widely expected to become the chief minister (CM), lost his own election, despite the BJP’s state-wide victory. After an extended power tussle, Jai Ram Thakur was named CM by central observers. National BJP President J P Nadda is also from Himachal Pradesh.

The regional picture

Himachal Pradesh comprises upper and lower Himachal. Shimla, Sirmaur, parts of Mandi, Kullu, Lahaul and Spiti, Solan, Kinnaur, and Chamba districts constitute upper Himachal. Kangra, Hamirpur, Bilaspur, Una, and the lower region of Mandi district are part of lower Himachal. Kangra is considered the seat of power: Of 68 Assembly seats, Kangra sends 15. Kangra gave Himachal its first non-Congress CM when the BJP formed the government under the leadership of Shanta Kumar in 1977. Now, with Jairam Thakur, who belongs to Mandi, the BJP has tightened its hold in lower Himachal.

Big issues ahead of this year’s election

Corruption (the state government has set up a special investigation team or SIT to probe the police recruitment paper leak scam that broke a few weeks ago), unemployment, and income support in the form of freebies are being debated hotly. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which is campaigning vigorously, has offered free electricity up to 200 units per month for each household, free water up to 20,000 litres per household, better government-run schools, and health centres. The BJP has announced 125 units of power free and travel for women at half fare. The Congress is offering a host of welfare measures, including a minimum support price for milk and a cess on alcohol, to cross-subsidise the expenditure required to set up chilling units.