In Maharashtra, BJP shows Uddhav's Sena its place

However, both the NCP and the Congress have shown that their Maratha support base continues to stand behind them

Its detractors are pointing out how the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s "bravado" in contesting the Maharashtra elections alone has flopped, for it has failed to reach the simple majority mark of 145 in the 288-member assembly. But BJP's gains, if looked in the context of last four elections, are massive. It is for the first time since 1995 that any party has crossed the 100-seats mark. 

 

The BJP is clearly planning not just for the immediate future, but the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. After this result, the BJP would have reasons to believe that its gamble to sever ties with its ally of 25 years, the Shiv Sena, has worked. BJP president Amit Shah has shown Shiv Sena and its chief Uddhav Thackeray their place. The BJP has won nearly twice the number of seats than the Sena's. Not only has the BJP bagged seats from across Maharashtra but also netted more seats even in the Sena's stronghold of Mumbai-Thane region.

 

Henceforth, the BJP can enter into any alliance with the Sena as the senior partner. It was something that BJP president Shah had laid out in clear enough terms at the party's National Council meeting in August in New Delhi. Few had then grasped the import of the new BJP president's words. Shah had then, in his speech as the new party president, said his objective was to have either BJP or BJP led governments in all states for a "Congress-mukt (free)" India. Thus, BJP strive to strike alliances but only as the lead party.

 

The Maharashtra elections are a great leap for a party that had, in Maharashtra, played second fiddle to the Sena. Interestingly, all the four major parties have received the same vote share as they secured in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP has received 27 per cent votes, followed by 20 per cent to the Sena's, and 18 per cent each to the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The difference being that the assembly election, unlike the Lok Sabha, was a five cornered contest. The BJP, until 2009 assembly elections, was the last of the four major political parties in Maharashtra in terms of its vote share. It had a vote share of 14 per cent in the 2009 assembly elections.

 

What has helped BJP is its electoral micro-management, the Narendra Modi factor which saw huge numbers turning up for his 27 public rallies in Maharashtra and well thought out election discourse which focussed entirely on the issue of development. The party didn't let the loss of its senior most leader in Maharashtra, Gopinath Munde, affect it. It fielded Munde's daughter, Pankaja, nearly immediately to tour Maharashtra to step into the shoes of her father and emerge as the party's OBC face. The BJP also realised early that its support for separate statehood to Vidarbha isn't a plank for the current elections.

 

However, both the NCP and Congress have shown that despite the 15-year-long anti-incumbency, their Maratha support base continues to stand behind them. It now depends much on how Uddhav and Sena accept the verdict. It is likely that Maharashtra might not have to wait for 2019 to see another round of assembly elections.