Early showers raise hope for better kharif crop

In case of below normal monsoon, acreage under cotton, sugar and urad may rise

This article has been modified. Please see the correction at the end.

With around 80 per cent of cultivation area having witnessed a reasonably good rainfall, production of agri commodities is likely to rise this kharif season. Output of kharif crop, however, may be impacted in case of El Niño, as indicated by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

Agriculture contributes 13.9 per cent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP) and provides employment to 60 per cent of its population. However, the significance of the monsoon rainfalls can be gauged from the fact that 64 per cent of India’s cultivation area is rainfed. A major chunk of the remaining 36 per cent of the cultivable land also depends on mechanical irrigation through water stored in dams, ponds or swallows from the monsoon rainfalls.

The monsoon rainfalls not only determine the fate of agricultural crop sowing in kharif season but also in rabi season with carry-over soil moisture.

“In case of a normal monsoon, we can see robust production of pulses, soybean, maize and groundnut. All of these have fetched excellent prices over the year, which will prompt farmers to devote higher acreage to these crops. On the contrary, acreage under paddy, bajra and castor are likely to shrink this year. Higher returns from other competitive crops will keep the trend of shifting acreage from bajra to other crops ongoing for this season as well, while poor returns fetched from castor last year will result in drop in acreage. We all hope for a normal monsoon this year and prices of farm output, which has seen a sky rocketing rise should cool down,” said a study by Edelweiss Integrated Commodity Management.

As feared by the IMD, the occurrence of El Niño might result in below-normal monsoon rainfalls during crops’ key germination stage during the June-August period, which could lower the overall yield even after a surge in the overall sowing area.

“In case of below-normal monsoon, area under cotton, sugar and urad may rise. Cotton has an advantage of the longest sowing window, Sugar is hardly rain-dependent and urad will do well in terms of yields with lower rains. However, crops like paddy, maize, groundnut, guar, castor, tur, moong and bajra would suffer due to lower yields,” the report added.


During El Nino years - 2002-03, 2006-07 and 2009-10 - production of almost all kharif agriculture commodities, barring a few, was badly hit.

“This season’s rainfalls have covered more than 50 per cent of cultivable area with above-normal showers. Consequently, pulses acreage could remain higher amid better prices, while cotton and sugar sown in irrigated land but lower prices in the past year discourage the farmer from sowing. In case of normal monsoon kharif coarse cereals production may jump 8-15 per cent and oilseeds by 15-20 per cent. By contrast, the occurrence of El Nino may reduce coarse cereals’ and oilseeds production by 5-10 per cent and above 10 per cent respectively,” said Jagdeep Grewal, director, Kunvarji Commodities.



Meanwhile, private weather forecasting agency Skymet has estimated 80 per cent of cultivable land received above normal rainfalls so far this season. The agency reiterated its rainfalls forecast at 102 per cent of long period average, against revised forecast of 88 per cent, below normal, this season.

CLARIFICATION
In an earlier version of this article, Skymet's long term period average was wrongly mentioned at 107 per cent, which has been corrected to 102 per cent. The error is regretted.