Low recovery in UP, Maharashtra may depress sugar output

Extended rainfall in October-November and short cold wave later hit the quality of cane.

India’s overall sugar output is unlikely to surpass 24 million tonnes during the current crushing season, due to a steep decline in recovery in Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, the country’s leading producers. The country produced 18.8 mt of sugar last year.

The extended rainfall in October-November, dry weather after that and the short cold wave hit the quality of cane substantially. The sucrose content has declined drastically, resulting in factories crushing more cane for less sugar.

Also, government-run employment programmes, including the National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, created a scarcity of labour for harvesting cane Hence, the prolonged period of standing crop meant resulted in blooming of flowers, indicating very low moisture content. Factoring all these issues, sugar output even at 24 mt looks unachievable, said Sunil Kakria, managing director of Mawana Sugars Ltd.

Talking on the sideline of a press meet here recently, Kakria said UP’s sugar output was likely to decline to six mt from the industry’s previous estimate of 6.4 mt. The Indian Sugar Mills Association (Isma) factored in 6.4 mt from UP in making an overall estimate of 25 mt for the current season. The state’s sugar commissioner estimated total output at 6.1 mt. As of yesterday, total output in the state was reported at 5.65 mt as against 4.07 mt by the same time last year.

During the rest of the operational period of nearly a fortnight more last year, sugar mills in the state added another 1.1 mt, which is highly unlikely this year. Hence, we can safely estimate total output in the state between 6.1-6.2 mt, said Isma director general Avinash Verma.

The deficit may not be bridged by mills in Maharashtra, as they are struggling with unharvested cane crop and lower recovery. Maharashtra is the country’s largest sugar producing state and has reported a decline of 0.26 percentage point in recovery, from 11.50 per cent last year to 11.24 per cent this year, according to an official with the Maharashtra State Federation of Co-operative Sugar Factories (in UP, the Isma recovery estimate is 9.11 per cent, down from 9.13 per cent last year).

Verma said the picture on overall output would be clearer in the next 15 days. Small states such as Bihar, Haryana and Karnataka have reported a slight increase in output, which may partly compensate the loss in the two leading states.

Sugar prices remained range-bound at Rs 2,600 a quintal in Maharashtra and Rs 2,800 a quintal in Uttar Pradesh.