MCX Gold, Silver futures likely to exhibit range-bound trade

The MCX Gold futures may test near term-resistance around Rs 56,170 - Rs 56,250; whereas, Silver futures may test Rs 64,930 - Rs 65,300.

The MCX Gold and Silver futures are likely to exhibit range-bound trade over the course of next few weeks, as the precious metal future prices look to consolidate following the recent decline.

Gold

Bias: Range-bound 

Last Close: Rs 55,737

Indicative Range: Rs 55,150 - Rs 57,350

Resistance: Rs 56,170; Rs 56,250

The MCX Gold futures seem to have taken support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart and pulled back. Overall, it seems like the MCX Gold futures may consolidate in the near term and exhibit a range-bound trade.

The precious metal now seems on its way to test resistance around the 20-DMA and 50-DMA placed at Rs 56,250 and Rs 56,170, respectively.

While key momentum oscillators indicate that Gold prices were bouncing back owing to oversold conditions on the daily chart. However, the price-to-moving averages action may turn negative for the short-term as the 20-DMA is on the verge of slipping below the 50-DMA.

Among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is seen in neutral mode; whereas the MACD (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence) is in oversold zone.

Hence, going forward sustenance above the 20-DMA, i.e. Rs 56,250 would be the key for Gold futures. As long as the commodity manages to sustain above the same, Gold prices can rally towards the higher-end of the Bollinger Bands. Thus indicating an upside target of Rs 57,350.

On the flip side, failure to sustain above the Rs 56,250 level can trigger a fall back to the recent lows of Rs 55,150-odd level.

On the weekly scale, Gold futures are seen holding above the 20-WMA (Weekly Moving Average) since the start of November 2022. The 20-WMA presently stands at Rs 54,650. The broader trend suggests that the overall bias shall remain positive as long as this level is held.

Accordingly to the weekly Fibonacci chart, this week, the MCX Gold April futures could swing in the range of Rs 55,190 to Rs 56,290; with support expected around Rs 55,540 - Rs 55,400, and on the upside resistance likely around Rs 56,080 - Rs 56,180.

On Monday, the MCX Gold April futures contract is likely to seek support around Rs 55,665 - Rs 55,615 - Rs 55,540, while on the upside the bias is likely to favour bulls above Rs 55,935.

Similarly, the MCX Gold Mini March futures are expected to find support around Rs 55,665 - Rs 55,600 - Rs 55,575, and on the upside the contract could exhibit a positive bias above Rs 55,930.

Silver

Bias: Range-bound

Last Close: Rs 64,413

Indicative Range: Rs 62,500 - Rs 68,000

Resistance: Rs 64,930; Rs 65,300

Similar to that of Gold futures, the MCX Silver futures too seem to have taken support around the lower-end of the Bollinger Bands on the daily chart at Rs 62,500-odd level, and may now exhibit range-bound movement.

The indicative range of Silver seems to be Rs 62,500 to Rs 68,000. The commodity is now seen testing resistance around the 100-DMA at Rs 64,930, above which it is likely to test the 20-DMA at Rs 65,300 level.

The price-to-moving averages action remains negative for Silver, as the commodity continues to trade below the key moving averages, and the 20-DMA too is placed below the 50-DMA - which stands at Rs 67,450.

However, among the key momentum oscillators, the 14-day RSI and the MACD have turned marginally favourable. Hence, Silver futures may attempt to conquer the near-term hurdles, and rally towards the higher-end of the anticipated trading band in the near term.

On the flip side, failure to conquer the near hurdles at Rs 64,930 and Rs (100-DMA) and Rs 65,300; could trigger a fall towards the lower-end of the trading band near Rs 62,500.

According to the weekly Fibonacci chart, the MCX Silver May futures, this week, are likely to swing in a range of Rs 62,970 to Rs 65,850, with support expected around Rs 63,900 - Rs 63,520 - Rs 63,250. On the upside, the precious metal may face resistance around Rs 64,930 - Rs 65,300 - Rs 65,580.

On Monday, Silver May futures may test support around Rs 64,070 - Rs 63,820 - Rs 63,450, while on the upside the contract may face resistance around Rs 65,000 - Rs 65,190 - Rs 65,375.

Similarly, MCX Silver Mini April futures could seek support around Rs 64,460 - Rs 64,340 - Rs 64,170; whereas on the upside the Mini contract may meet resistance around Rs 64,910 - Rs 65,000 - Rs 65,090 today.

Further, the MCX Silver Micro April futures are likely to seek support around Rs 64,470 - Rs 64,345 - Rs 64,170; whereas the contract could counter resistance around Rs 64,920 - Rs 65,010 - Rs 65,100 on Monday.