Commodity Trading

For investors and corporates, the prudent strategy is to treat oil not as a one-directional price trade but as a geopolitical volatility asset

Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and increased expectations of higher interest rates.

Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said elevated expectations of a Fed rate hike are bearish for the metal, but the downside is expected to remain limited

Brent is likely to remain supported while Hormuz traffic remains impaired, Red Sea threats persist, and Russian refining capacity faces recurring attacks

The US Fed chief Warsh's hawkish stance and rate hike worries due to Middle East tensions would keep Gold prices under pressure.

Crude Oil market has moved beyond a simple war-premium story. It's now balancing three forces at once: geopolitical risk around Hormuz, refinery-led product tightness and softer macro-demand impulse.

The exit of UAE has certainly loosened the cartels grip over the pricing power and the Cartels kingpin Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar are fighting an open war to control the market

Silver is expected to be highly volatile and choppy in the short run due to the evolving situation in West Asia. However, as West Asia conflict is likely to remain contained, traders may buy the dips.

Gold prices are expected to remain volatile and choppy amid uncertainty over situation in the Middle East, may trade in the range of $4,000-$4,200 for now.

Recent pullback in crude oil prices from the channel support suggests short-covering, but the prevailing structure continues to reflect lower highs and lower lows, keeping the broader downtrend intact

The Middle East is now entering a different kind of conflict-one driven not by military confrontation, but by the battle for market share in global oil markets.

Gold is expected to trade with a positive bias in near-term, and can extend its advance to $4,200 level in the coming weeks. Upside will remain capped unless the rate hike probability comes down furth

Silver prices rebounded on Warsh's remarks in the ECB panel discussion on July 1, and a weaker-than-expected nonfarm US payroll report for June.

For the second-half of 2026, upside for Gold and Silver seems to be capped around $4,400 and $90, says Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities:

Developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations, movement in crude oil prices and key global economic data are expected to steer gold and silver prices next week, analysts said. The focus will squarely be on talks scheduled in Burgenstock, Switzerland, where US Vice President J D Vance is expected to lead discussions with Iranian officials to build on last week's framework agreement aimed at ending hostilities and reviving nuclear negotiations. Analysts said the outcome of the talks could influence risk sentiment and energy markets, with implications for bullions. Domestic commodity markets will remain closed during the morning session on Friday on account of Muharram. "Gold and silver momentum looks sideways/corrective as focus will remain on the negotiation between Washington and Tehran and also on the flow of crude oil, LNG and raw materials from the Strait of Hormuz," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said. The precious .

Silver was trading at $66, down 7.78 per cent from June 17 high of $71.57.

Gold sold off not because the war became less threatening, but because the war was making the Fed's job harder.

The path of least resistance for Brent over the next two quarters appears skewed to the downside, with Brent prices likely drifting below $90/bbl

According to Praveen Singh, head of commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, silver is expected to continue to remain under pressure unless a US-Iran deal is formally announced

A firmer dollar, rate hikes by central banks, ETF outflows, and elevated yields are likely to keep the yellow metal under pressure. China's demand is not too strong either