Commodity Trading

The key shift in October is that the oil price rally has changed character from reflecting genuine physical tightness to what could happen next, explains Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo.

The White House has been leaning on regional channels to cool prices, ahead of the Mid-Term election on November 3, says Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

The crude oil/silver ratio has fallen through the crucial support around 58, which means silver remains vulnerable to rise in oil prices.

Gold price outlook: Near-term resistance is at $4140/$4227; support is at $4000/$3930.

Brent climbed back above $113 a barrel after a deadly drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Shaybah field, highlights Mohammed Imran of Mirae Asset Sharekhan.

Gold price outlook: If Brent extends rally and feeds into hotter inflation data and firmer Fed hike bets, lifting yields and the dollar, Gold could test $4,000-mark, says Kaynat Chainwala, Kotak Neo.

Gold and silver have corrected sharply since April, falling 11 per cent and 19 per cent, respectively, in USD terms.

The diplomatic picture adds further uncertainty. Trump described his meeting with Iran's delegation at the UNGA as very good and indicated further discussions are scheduled.

The global cost of carrying crude oil which used to be around 1-2 per cent of the total contract value has now faring 20-25 per cent to Asian refiners.

In August, Treasury more than doubled its bond repurchase operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation

Mirae Asset Sharekhan said dovish Fed commentary has eased downside pressure on silver, but high China inventories, subdued LBMA lease rates and weak ETF flows remain concerns.

Mirae Asset ShareKhan's Praveen Singh said that gold's key support levels are at $4,450, $4,358, and $4,300-4,330, while resistance is seen at $4,533, $4,575, and $4,650.

Global gold ETFs recorded 23.5 tonnes of inflows in July, reversing two straight months of outflows.

IFSCA is discussing with the government a proposal to classify commodity trading as a financial product in GIFT IFSC, potentially boosting India's role in global commodity markets

For investors and corporates, the prudent strategy is to treat oil not as a one-directional price trade but as a geopolitical volatility asset

Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said oil prices fuelled inflation concerns and increased expectations of higher interest rates.

Praveen Singh, Head of Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan, said elevated expectations of a Fed rate hike are bearish for the metal, but the downside is expected to remain limited

Brent is likely to remain supported while Hormuz traffic remains impaired, Red Sea threats persist, and Russian refining capacity faces recurring attacks

The US Fed chief Warsh's hawkish stance and rate hike worries due to Middle East tensions would keep Gold prices under pressure.

Crude Oil market has moved beyond a simple war-premium story. It's now balancing three forces at once: geopolitical risk around Hormuz, refinery-led product tightness and softer macro-demand impulse.