Global CO2 emissions set for historic fall this year

Global carbon emissions are projected to stall in 2015, according to a team of researchers.

Last year global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry grew by just 0.6 per cent, marking a year-on-year slow down. The projection for 2015 reveals a second year of slow growth or even a small decrease in global emissions.

The University of East Anglia and the Global Carbon Project research reveals that emissions could decline by 0.6 per cent this year. While declines in emissions have previously occurred during periods of economic crisis, this would be the first decline during a period of strong global economic growth.

Corinne Le Quere, who led the data analysis, said that these figures are certainly not typical of the growth trajectory seen since 2000, where the annual growth in emissions was between 2 and 3 percent. "What we are now seeing is that emissions appear to have stalled, and they could even decline slightly in 2015."

Quere noted that it is important to remember that our projection for 2015 is an estimate and there will always be a range of uncertainty. In this case, the 2015 projection ranges from a global decline in emissions of up to 1.5 per cent or at the other end of the spectrum, a small rise of 0.5 per cent.

The projection for 2015 is based on available energy consumption data in China and the US, and on forecast economic growth for the rest of the world.

The study is published today in the journal Nature Climate Change.