Emerging market growth picks up at start of Q4

HSBC Emerging Markets Index

The HSBC Emerging Markets Index (EMI), a monthly indicator derived from the PMI surveys, signalled the fastest rise in output in seven months in October. At 51.7, the EMI remained well below its long-run trend level of 54.0. But the latest figure represented an improvement on the trend shown over Q3 (50.3), the lowest of any quarter since Q1 2009 during the global financial crisis.

Both manufacturing production and services activity registered stronger rates of expansion in October, reaching six- and seven-month highs respectively.

China registered a stronger increase in output in October. Notably, new export orders at manufacturers rose at the fastest rate in nearly a year. Of the other largest emerging economies, Russia and Brazil posted sharper increases in activity, but India registered a fourth successive decline in output. Meanwhile, new PMI data for South Africa signalled a recovery in private sector growth, following a contraction in September.

October data indicated falling levels of production and new orders in the Indian manufacturing economy, as the internal business climate remained tough. However, there was some positive news on the export front as foreign orders grew for the first time since July.

New business growth across global emerging markets also rose at the strongest rate in seven months in October. This led to the first overall rise in employment in four months, and a stable trend in backlogs of work. The rate of input price inflation eased in October, but was the second-fastest in eight months. Output prices rose for the third month running, but at a slower rate than in September.

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