Optimism Fuels Indian Business Cycle in February

ZyFin Business Cycle Indicator, leading signal to IIP trend, suggests expansion over February

ZyFin Research's Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) indicates that the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) would continue to expand in February 2015, official data for which would only be available in April 2015. Business Cycle is the fluctuation in economic activity over time and is characterized by four distinct phases- recovery, growth, decline and recession. The ZyFin BCI is an indicator of the phase of the Indian business cycle with current data suggesting that India is well into a recovery phase, fast approaching growth. The BCI is reported on the basis of its Year on Year growth. It recovered 9.7% in February 2015, compared to February 2014 reflecting building momentum in India's economic activity.

Rising confidence among economic agents towards an imminent growth revival is at the center of this recovery within BCI. ZyFin's Consumer Outlook Index, measuring consumer sentiment, has recovered substantially from 2014 levels signalling a likely pickup in spending. Incidentally private spending accounts for more than 55% of the Indian GDP. Also, the NDA government appears committed to maintain targeted levels of deficit, with steeply declining non planned government expenditure coupled with divestment revenue generation being early evidence. A committed government and increased domestic private sector participation are channels for wooing much needed foreign investment, and India is on track on both aspects.

Giving his views on the December number, Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist, ZyFin Research, said, We expect the Indian Business Cycle to catapult into a growth phase as early as May 2015, post which benefits of heightened economic wealth creation should start benefitting the larger population.

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