BJP's UP strategy: Reach out to Dalits, shock & awe Yadavs, Muslims

To repeat 2014 Lok Sabha results, Amit Shah working round the clock to ensure a three-cornered contest in UP; asks party cadre to launch peoples' movement to fight illegal occupation of land

For the Maharashtra assembly polls of October 2014, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) successfully isolated the influential Marathas of the state and consolidated most other castes in its favour. In Haryana polls that were held alongside Maharashtra, BJP strategists were similarly successful in unifying everyone else to vote for the party while majority of the state’s dominant Jat community voted for its rivals. 

In both these states, elections were three or four cornered affairs with a discredited Congress being the principal rival of the BJP. In Haryana, the Congress was fighting two term anti-incumbency and three term anti-incumbency, with the Nationalist Congress Party, in Maharashtra.

But a similar strategy to unify the Dalits, the most backwards and the upper castes against Lalu Prasad-led Yadavs and Muslims backfired in Bihar assembly polls of October-November 2015. BJP thinks it lost Bihar primarily because the fight became bipolar with Prasad, Nitish Kumar and Congress joining hands. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP and its allies had won 31 of Bihar’s 40 seats in what was a multi-cornered contest.

The BJP is about to repeat its strategy in Uttar Pradesh. The plan is much more nuanced than it was in Bihar, but rests primarily on ensuring a three-cornered contest between Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), the incumbent Samajwadi Party and BJP. A fractionally stronger Congress could also help the BJP. Such a strategy had brought BJP as many as 73 of the 80 seats in UP in 2017.

Here are five things to know about BJP’s UP strategy:

‘Jan Andolan’ for land

BJP President Amit Shah has been holding meetings of party’s booth workers. These meetings are telecast live on local channels and find good coverage in local Hindi dailies. Shah plans to address all of the party’s booth workers in UP in the next one month. He addressed 16,000 booth workers in Kasganj on Tuesday. He asked party cadres to launch a peoples’ movement to fight for land that has been acquired by government sponsored goons. The immediate provocation for the call was the Mathura incident, where a cult led by Ramvriksh Yadav had illegally occupied government land ostensibly with protection from ministers of SP government.

The underlying message is that BJP cadres should hold protests outside the offices of local officials to highlight land grab, especially of Dalit-owned plots, by those who are under the protection of the ruling party, read Yadavs.

The strategy will not only ensure Dalit outreach but also that the party cadre, which was demoralized, will now get galvanized.

Poor law and order 

Shah doesn’t mention any caste names but has been pointing out how police take action only after they get to know of a complainant’s caste. The message is clear that Yadav police officers discriminate against Dalit complainants.

The BJP believes its Dalit outreach will at least help it get the non-Jatav Dalit votes.

Confuse the Muslims

BJP leadership will not talk about building a Ram temple. The official line is that the temple will be constructed either after court orders or consensus. Their focus will be on highlighting Modi government’s development agenda. However, Sangh Parivar’s other outfits will keep the pot boiling on Dadri and give statements to instill fear among Muslims. It is important for the BJP that Muslims do not vote in large numbers to one single party, but are divided equally in their support to the SP, BSP and Congress.

‘BSP not in the fight’

Shah and others, as they did in 2014, are telling people that the SP is their main rival and not the BSP. The BJP and Mayawati-led BSP fight for same set of votes among Brahmins and Dalits. The SP is facing anti-incumbency but the BJP propaganda could bolster SP votes, particularly from Muslims, and ensure a three way division of votes. It will also help BJP keep the Brahmins from moving towards Mayawati, while making inroads among the Dalits.

Pro-farmer agenda

Added to all this is the Modi government’s pro-farmer schemes, particularly to sugarcane farmers. It will also highlight the poor state of roads and electricity supply in most parts of UP.

However, the BJP is wary of a Congress-BSP alliance. This could not only mean consolidation of Dalit but also Muslim votes behind these two parties, and would attract the Brahmins, who constitute as much as 10%, as well. 

The BSP has announced that in the Rajya Sabha elections on June 11 its legislators in Madhya Pradesh, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh will vote for Congress candidates.

There is also still no clarity on a chief ministerial candidate. It is certain that Home Minister Rajnath Singh will travel the state widely. But the party doesn’t have a face, other than his, that can rival either Mayawati or Akhilesh Yadav in popular imagination.