Desperate call

An expat is clueless about where the rupee is headed

It was a surprising call from a very worried voice on the other end.

"Hi. You would probably know what's happening in the world of currency. Would you know how much lower the rupee would fall? You business journalists have a better idea and you know people who have an idea about the direction the rupee would take."

As someone who decided to return to India on hearing the loud noises of India Shining, and after sighting an business opportunity on a visit, he is now left watching the currency markets and the rupee fall.

One would think he should be among the set of people who shouldn't be worrying as he had much of his earnings in dollars and the funds were in his account in a US bank. He wanted to know if he should repatriate the funds he has in the US. His main worry: "What if the rupee begins to rise?"

The rupee falls when the dollar falls compared to other major currencies and rupee falls when the dollar strengthens. "I am at my wits end." There must be a bottom. But, it seems it is in a bottomless pit for someone like him who needs to import quite a few things for running his business.

"Who would know when it will stop falling? Can you speak to your professors and some other economists who would know?"

No explanation or logic from whatever little knowledge of mine from what I read or heard could convince him. He insisted on me speaking to an expert.

I managed to get one number for rupee. It could be around Rs 70!

What if the rupee strengthens before that?

And, what how long could it take?

I said: "Your bet is as good as mine."

Not satisfied, he continued: "Please check again." Now who do I check with?

Perhaps an astrologer! My professor who I continue to trouble even 15 years after leaving university would be a mistake. Because only astrology and not econometric models could give an answer.